This weekend, online betting company (and owner of my paycheck) Bodog.com released its first set of preseason Heisman Trophy odds. As expected, no Boston College players were listed in the rather extensive list of players. Last month I wrote about how improbable it would be for BC to win another Heisman Trophy. Looks like the oddsmakers seem to agree with me.
But looking at the list, I thought wouldn't it make sense for Montel Harris to be on the list, even as a longshot? For the sake of this argument, let's just compare Harris to some of the other running backs listed:
| Odds | Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Avg | TD's |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/1 | Roy Finch* | Oklahoma | 85 | 398 | 4.7 | 2 |
| 90/1 | Marcus Coker* | Iowa | 114 | 622 | 5.5 | 3 |
| 12/1 | Trent Richardson* | Alabama | 112 | 700 | 6.3 | 6 |
| 7/1 | Marcus Lattimore | South Carolina | 249 | 1,197 | 4.6 | 17 |
| -- | Montel Harris | Boston College | 248 | 1,243 | 4.6 | 8 |
| 15/1 | Knile Davis | Arkansas | 204 | 1,322 | 6.5 | 13 |
| 25/1 | Chris Polk | Washington | 260 | 1,415 | 5.4 | 9 |
| 15/2 | LaMichael James | Oregon | 294 | 1,731 | 5.9 | 21 |
* Finch, Coker and Richardson were all backups in 2010.
Those statistics should squash any debate here. Harris is near the bottom of this group in both YPCs and TDs and would probably be near the bottom in yards if the non-starters played out a full season. Harris did miss two games due to injury, but if you add in his rushing average to fill out a season Harris would have only had 1,469 yards and 9 TDs.
But is a healthy Harris a given? Probably not, and it's probably safe to say that Andre Williams and Tahj Kimble may take a few more of Harris's attempts this year. So in all likelihood, Harris' 2010 stats should closely resemble his 2011 campaign.
History has also not been kind to running backs, as only one running back has won the Heisman in the past ten years (two if you count the recently vacated Reggie Bush Heisman), with the rest going to quarterbacks. Marcus Lattimore has the best odds for a back, but he is behind both Andrew Luck (9/2) and Landry Jones (13/2).
Harris may be on pace to break every Boston College's rushing record and even the ACC's all-time rushing record, but he appears that he won't be in the 2011 Heisman Trophy conversation.