Backing The Pack recently noted BC's turnover margin and the lack of turnovers generated by the defense this season.
"As is often the case for teams with iffy quarterback play, BC's offense is turnover prone. But at least in 2010 the defense forced 33 turnovers, good for the 7th highest total in the country. They finished +8 on the year, which is the sort of number that can push a mediocre team over the borderline into bowl eligibility. This season, the defense has forced just 10 turnovers in nine games, and the team has gone from +8 in 2010 to -8 in 2011. The offense has maintained a steady 2 turnover/game average through both years."
It's a great point and one I hadn't really thought of in recent weeks. I mean, it's become painfully obvious that the defense isn't putting points on the board when the offense manages just 15.1 points a game against Division I-A opponents. But the drop off in turnover margin has been dramatic this season.
Here are the last five years turnover margins for the Eagles:
2007: +6 (0.43 / game)
2008: +3 (0.21)
2009: -3 (-0.23)
2010: +8 (0.62)
2011: -8 (-0.89)
Going from +8 to -8 in the span of one season, combined with an anemic offense and an underperforming defense is a recipe for a 2-win season. BC has had a negative turnover margin in six of the Eagles' eight games against I-A teams, including losing the turnover battle in each of our last five games -- Wake Forest -1, Clemson -2, Virginia Tech -2, Maryland -2, Florida State -3.
Conversely, N.C. State is +9 in turnover margin this season, including a +5 performance against Liberty and a +4 outing against Central Michigan. The Wolfpack have only lost the turnover battle twice this season, in a 44-14 loss at Cincinnati and a 34-0 loss at Florida State.
Hopefully the BC D can get a fumble recovery or an interception ... anything ... to help turn the Eagles luck in the turnover battle.