I have been keeping tabs on Jeff Sagarin's weekly NCAA college football rankings through the first three weeks of the season, to get a better sense of how the Eagles stack up to one of the few computer rankings used in the BCS standings. Using a combination of the Elo Chess and the Pure Points ratings, you can simulate the Eagles' remaining 10 games.
This week, Sagarin's computer rankings have the Eagles finishing the season 8-4 (4-4 ACC), with losses to Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Florida State and -- surprisingly -- Virginia. This is up one win from the first two weeks of the season. After weeks 1 and 2, Sagarin's rankings had the Eagles at 7-5.
Here's how Sagarin's computer rankings predict the Eagles will finish the season:
| Rating | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 79.17 | Virginia Tech | Loss |
| 73.85 | Notre Dame | Win |
| 78.73 | at N.C. State | Loss |
| 83.56 | at Florida State | Loss |
| 75.74 | Maryland | Win |
| 72.95 | Clemson | Win |
| 71.07 | at Wake Forest | Win |
| 66.33 | at Duke | Win |
| 79.65 | Virginia | Loss |
| 67.37 | at Syracuse | Win |
Can't complain too much about this prediction, though I think as N.C. State starts to drop games, you might see that result flip back to a win. Same with the Cavaliers. At the very least, the Eagles should close the gap with the Wolfpack by putting in better performances than their weeks 1 and 2 performances against Weber State and Kent State.
I think what's more surprising is how well Florida State looks to computers through the first three weeks. FSU is currently the highest ranked ACC team with a rating of 83.56 (good for 17th), followed by Virginia at 26. In fact, Sagarin predicts the Seminoles will get through the ACC portion of their schedule with an unblemished 8-0 record.
Through three weeks, here is the 2010 ACC Atlantic and Coastal Division race as predicted by the Sagarin ratings.
| Atlantic | W | L | W | L | Coastal | W | L | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | 8 | 0 | 10 | 2 | Georgia Tech | 7 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| N.C. State | 6 | 2 | 9 | 3 | Virginia Tech | 6 | 2 | 8 | 4 |
| Boston College | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | Virginia | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| Maryland | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | Miami | 5 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Wake Forest | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 | North Carolina | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| Clemson | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 | Duke | 0 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
Well, I take that back. After looking at this, I can't decide what's more surprising. The fact that Sagarin loves the Seminoles and has them coasting to a perfect ACC regular season regular (something that hasn't been accomplished since the ACC expanded to 12 teams) or the complete and utter meltdown that the predictor has for Clemson at 3-9 (1-7 ACC). Clearly, the Tigers haven't impressed these computer rankings to date. Combine that with a brutal schedule and after week 3, you wind up with a 3-9 record.
Luckily for the Tigers, and for BC, games aren't played on paper.