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Dropped by the 'Pack and ACC Scenarios

Well, that was disappointing.

ESPN U Standings FAIL

Despite what ESPN U would have you believe based on their postgame ACC Standings graphic, the Eagles lost to NC State last night 74-69 to drop to 8-7 in conference. Rakim Sanders led the way with 21 points. Jeff has a long car ride home from Raleigh tonight ...

Let's review our ACC Tournament options. Here are the things we know for certain.
  • North Carolina and Duke have clinched first round byes
  • BC can no longer finish in the top 4 and earn a first round bye (see below)
  • Virginia is locked into the #11 seed
  • Georgia Tech is locked into the #12 seed

With a win over Georgia Tech on Saturday, the Eagles will finish with a 9-7 record in the ACC. The other teams we would be vying with for ACC Tournament seeding at that point would be Clemson and Florida State. Here are the scenarios if the Eagles win:
  • If Florida State loses to Virginia Tech on Sunday and Clemson loses at Wake Forest, there would be a three-way tie for fourth place with FSU, Clemson and BC all at 9-7. To break a three way tie, the conference looks at the record of the teams in the group. Clemson is 1-2 vs. the group (dropping both games to FSU and beating us), FSU is 2-1 and BC is 1-1. In this case, FSU gets the 4 seed and the first round bye. BC gets fifth and the Clemson Tigers get the sixth seed (Remember, in a three-way tie, you can't use the head-to-head tiebreaker. See: 2008 Big XII South football).
  • If Florida State loses and Clemson wins, BC gets the 5 seed and FSU gets the sixth seed as both teams will finish 9-7 and BC wins the head-to-head.
  • If Florida State wins and Clemson loses, Clemson gets the 5 seed and BC gets the 6 seed.
  • If Florida State and Clemson both win, we are locked into the 6 seed, alone at 9-7 in conference.

With a loss on Saturday, the Eagles will finish with a 8-8 record in the ACC. The other teams we would be vying with for ACC Tournament seeding at that point would be Virginia Tech and Maryland. Here are the scenarios if the Eagles lose:
  • If Virginia Tech loses at Florida State on Sunday and Maryland loses at Virginia on Saturday, the Eagles would finish 8-8, and the Hokies and Terps would finish 7-9, giving BC the 6 seed.
  • If Virginia Tech wins and Maryland loses, BC and Virginia Tech would be tied at 8-8 in the conference standings. Neither team wins the head-to-head since the Eagles and Hokies split this year, so the second ACC tiebreaker is record vs. the best team in the conference standings. Given that BC is 1-0 against both North Carolina and Duke, advantage Eagles. Eagles finish as the 6 seed.
  • If Virginia Tech loses and Maryland wins, BC and Maryland would be tied at 8-8. BC owns the head-to-head. BC is the 6 and Maryland is the 7.
  • If Virginia Tech and Maryland both win, BC, Virginia Tech and Maryland are all tied at 8-8. Looking at the record of teams in the group, BC is 2-1, Maryland is 1-1 and Virginia Tech is 1-2. BC wins the first tie breaker and is the 6 seed, Maryland the 7 and Virginia Tech the No. 8 seed.

Long story short, the Eagles can fall no lower than the #6 seed in the ACC Tournament and can only grab the #5 seed if both Florida State loses and Clemson wins. The #4 seed and the first round bye were lost tonight in Raleigh ...

In all likelihood, BC is the 6 seed and faces 11th seeded Virginia in the opening round. If FSU loses and Clemson wins ... or if both FSU and Clemson lose, the Eagles will snag the #5 seed and play #12 Georgia Tech.

Any questions?