As over hyped and over covered as the NFL draft is, we decided to throw our hat into the ring. We preview this weekend's NFL draft with a game of odds makers. This week's game attempts to answer the question of where Boston College QB Matt Ryan lands:
First one, Odds Matt Ryan is drafted by the Atlanta Falcons?
Jeff: 25%. There are 2 possible scenarios where Matt doesn't get drafted by Atlanta. #1 They don't draft him. Or #2 They trade their pick and perhaps another team drafts him in that slot.
Brian: I'm going to say 40%, which is fairly high, considering all the other things Atlanta can do with this pick. Atlanta might take LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey at #3 if he's available. Atlanta really needs a fresh face to the franchise, which is exactly what they'd be getting with #12. That it, of course, if they don't think Joey Harrington is the answer ...
Odds a team trades up to draft Matt Ryan? (Likely suitors in this scenario: Carolina, Chicago and Detroit)
Brian: This would be the ultimate poker play by Carolina, Chicago or Detroit. The most likely draft spots in the top 10 to be traded by my estimation are the Jets at #6 and the Pats at #7. The other scenario if Atlanta doesn't take Ryan is Baltimore moves up a few spots to ensure they grab Ryan. The Ravens could just as likely trade down and look to make either Henne or local boy Flacco their signal caller of the future. Overall though, I don't think this scenario is likely so I'm going to go low. 20%.
Jeff: I completely disagree here Brian. I think there are two possible scenarios for Ryan on draft day. He will either be taken by the Falcons or someone will trade up to get him once he falls past that slot. Baltimore is in love with him and they will get antsy once he slides past #3. 75%.
Odds Matt Ryan falls past pick #6 (New York Jets)?
Jeff: I'm gonna be surprised if Ryan falls past number 6, so I'll say 5%. Atlanta might take him at #3 or others including Baltimore (currently at #8) may trade up for him. Not to mention my boys, the "J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets" have some interest.
Brian: Assuming that Ryan falls past Atlanta, I can't see either the Jets or the Chiefs drafting Ryan. There is a growing interweb collective saying that the Jets are really high on Ryan, including SI's Peter King. If this is true, the Jets would have 0 patience for developing Kellen Clemens, which I find surprising. So again, assuming Ryan isn't a Falcon, I would say there's a 75% chance he falls past both the Jets and the Chiefs.
Odds Mel Kiper Jr. isn't covering the draft next year? (i.e. Matt Ryan falls past #8)
Brian: An emphatic squaddush, 0%! I know there is a growing contingent of Matt Ryan naysayers out there in blogfrica (I'm looking at you, Brian Cook), but I personally think these naysayers couldn't be more wrong. I think there is 0 percent chance Matt Ryan falls past the Ravens. The Ravens need their quarterback of the future, seeing as their former quarterback just pulled a Brett Favre. An added bonus is Matt Ryan will be playing close to his hometown, and he stays out of the NFC so he doesn't compete with my NY Giants. Win, win, win.
Jeff: You hit the nail on the head. How often does the top QB not get drafted #8 or higher? Too many of the top 8 teams could use him. 0%.
Last one, odds Ryan has a better pro career than Brian Brohm, Chad Henne and Joe Flacco?
Jeff: 26%. I'm gonna give him a slight edge over the other 3 and therefore give him slightly more than a one quarter chance. There are way too many variables here including injuries and supporting cast. I think Matt Ryan will have a good pro career but I am not expecting the Hall of Fame so I wouldn't be at all surprised if another QB rises above him in the next few seasons.
Brian: Disclaimer: I'm biased, but ... 100%! No one has done more with less than Matt Ryan. No one has the intangibles and says all the right things like Matt Ryan. #12 didn't get to throw to Super Mario Manningham, didn't return for his senior year in hopes of winning a National Championship only to lead his team to a pedestrian 6-6 in the Big East, and didn't rack up really gaudy numbers against inferior I-AA competition. With all due respect to Misters Brohm, Henne and Flacco, there's a reason #12 is the consensus #1 QB in the draft and a top 10 lock.