Final Day Pairwise Scenarios: Everything Is A Mess

Damn you, Miami. Damn you.

If one thing is clear about the last-4-in, it is that nothing is clear.

Heading into the last day of the conference tournaments, it is still completely unclear who Boston College will play in round 1 of the NCAA tournament.

As of right now it looks like BC can play any combination of North Dakota, Michigan, New Hampshire (yup), Ohio State, Denver, or Minnesota State. Play around with USCHO's Pairwise Predictor to see if you find something I've missed.

It's also entirely possible for BC to drop down to 3rd in the Pairwise, which doesn't change all that much for the Eagles, but could rearrange who we would play.

Let's do a quick breakdown:

What do we know for sure?

--The #1 seed will be Minnesota.
--The #16 seed will be the terrible, terrible AHA champion, either Robert Morris or Canisius.
--Minnesota will play the terrible AHA champion in round 1.
--Boston College and Union will be the 2 and 3 seeds, not necessarily in that order.
--There will be a second non-top 16 autobid, but if it's Miami, BC can't play them because they are hosting the Cincinnati regional (dumb).

Beyond that, there are a lot of moving parts here.

The biggest piece to remember here is that if Miami wins tomorrow, BC will not be facing the Redhawks. Whoever ends up with the #4 seed will have the honor of playing them since Miami is hosting the Cincinnati regional.

Here are some rapidfire possibilities:

If Union and UNH both win, BC is likely down to 3rd in the Pairwise. That's rough if Denver wins -- the lowest ranked opponent BC can play -- but it would most likely give BC vs. UNH. It is possible for BC to play Minnesota State in this scenario if Canisius wins the AHA, Western Michigan beats North Dakota in the NCHC 3rd place game, and Denver beats Miami. Union would get Denver.

Best case scenario: If (Lowell or Colgate) and Denver both win, BC will play Denver.

Nightmare scenario: If Miami wins and there are no other autobid winners, BC is 2nd or 3rd in the Pairwise but can't play the #15, Miami. That would put BC against the #14 seed, which would be Michigan if North Dakota loses, or North Dakota if they win.

Very good scenario: If Ohio State wins, then BC will either be 2nd or 3rd depending on the UNH and Union games. Either way, BC will play either Ohio State or Denver (Denver if we are 2nd, Ohio State if we are 3rd or if Miami beats Denver).

So that's the bulk of BC's scenarios. Have fun with the predictor and let us know if you find anything interesting.

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