Dan Hanner of RealGMBasketball.com recently published early ACC Basketball projects that incorporate a number of different factors. Considering its May, these have about as much validity as Joe Lunardi's first 2014 NCAA Tournament bracketology published a few days after Louisville was crowned champ. Still, this provides a decent baseline for expectations in 2013-14.
Hanner's system has Boston College finishing 9th in the ACC with an 8-10 record. Duke and North Carolina run 1-2 in the conference, natch, while all three of the youngbloods all finish with a winning record. Virginia, Maryland and Florida State are Hanner's picks to finish in the top half of the league, while last year's champ Miami falls all the way to 14th (?) in conference, ahead of only hapless Virginia Tech.
Here's what Hanner has to say about Boston College's chances in 2013-14:
"Notre Dame transfer Alex Dragicevich will add to the team's depth. But until Boston College starts playing better defense, they won't make the tournament."
If the Eagles can get to 8-9 wins in conference, one would think that the squad stands a decent chance of making the NCAA Tournament. That doesn't consider, however, an appreciably more difficult non-conference schedule that includes games against two of Indiana / Washington / UCONN, as well as road/neutral games against USC, Auburn, Providence, UMass, Harvard and Virginia Commonwealth.
Overall I agree with Hanner's assessment that this team will go only as far as its defense takes it, but that won't be what makes or breaks Boston College's NCAA Tournament chances in 2013-14. The schedule, however, will.
HT: Backing The Pack