BC Needs an Offensive DayPass and Defensive Brown PassOut
You NEGNAN’s did not listen to the Great Humble Oracle of Fort Worth and many never bet BC would win at least 5, let alone 6 at +140!
We Got People.
BC has a really nicely spaced schedule and no more "Amidosis" of Rettig telegraphing and only lock lasering in on WR Alex Amidon and the Tyler Murphy impact could be 2007 Déjà vu.
BC was horrible in passing and some here did not read my pre-season percentages on the Aerie-Al Circus BC needed to have balance and that passing offensive formula was only 53% of the plays, but it takes a while for the reading comprehension young BC fans to read here and digest.
You can’t win Titles and beat better teams with a 114th ranked passing offense out of 125 teams in todays’ pass happy game.
BC was way out of Mr. Miagi balance last year and 93rd in Total Offense and 20th in rushing due to the overused AW battering ram. AW had some nice games versus solid teams, but also had 38, 70 and 75 yards versus USC, Clemson and Arizona, since BC passing game was inept.
Ryan Day had some horrible and predictable play sequencing game calls and did BC no favors by going "Steroid Turtle" in some big games BC could have won. Many disagree, but that is based upon your lack of experience and poor analytical skills.
Day targeted Amidon for 47% of the completions (77) and not one other WR had more than 10 catches and that one dimensional play targeting will never get you to Arlington and our WR’s were not that bad and very underdeveloped.
Ryan now has a Senior QB who is big, can throw, better running and pocket agility skills. Now with Shakim and a full slate of receivers to work out with, that also includes our huge sets of tight ends and running backs, BC’s has a real nice offensive line with 4 Seniors too.
BC never threw to AW, but Myles Willis showed he was a solid weapon catching the ball and again, the Ryan Day brain vapor lock, never used him much after a spectacular TD catch and run.
BC ran 66% of the time or 2-1 in 2013, and that sharp ratio imbalance is why when BC needed to pass in early downs, when ahead or behind. Our passing game was inept and our playbook was shallow.
The better ratio for BC is 60% run versus lesser teams we can maul and use the other 40% in plays for better teams to prepare for and we need to pass early and get 2nd and short and then pound them. BC needs to be in the 54% to 58% run vs. pass ratio, but with AW gone, this may be the range anyway.
To me, BC needs a balanced and innovative new passing playbook to control the ball more and score more and get the defense to not put 9 in the box. Day has a great play calling year and the defense can rest more, take more ball hawking and blitzing chances.
The season key to being in all 12 games, is Ryan Day and his development and plays he calls for Tyler Murphy. TM has a great poised leadership passing game, there is no team BC can’t beat road or home.
I have seen some bad pass defense and techniques, but BC’s passing defense sets and coverage’s were the worst I have ever witnessed. Six returning defensive starters and lots of players in every position who have to step up.
BC had 35 sacks. I was mocked when I predicted 40 from the prior year’s 6, since some never had the smarts to realize Spazoo was a lazy loser and was always a mediocre, stale defensive coach.
A lot of the defensive problems, ranked 93rd, (same as Offense), was the many 3 rushes and a punt by the offense and failure to convert 3rd downs. BC was a shocking 100th in 3rd down conversions with a bull RB like AW?
BC’s offense dropped the defense in deep with too many short series.
BC had 941 Defensive plays versus 791 Offensive Plays. When 54.3% of your time is on defense, you will not win many big games.
Almost 12 plays a game. 150 plays!
And what does that tell you kids? Ryan Day needs to utilize his passing game assets of TE’s, RB’s and WR’s early in the down sequences to get 2nd and short?
FSU halftime debacle with the prior 25 inept play calls by Ryan Day ring a bell kids or the Syracuse and Clemson (Dazzler’s only bad coaching game) giveaways?
Obviously, make no mistake, I expect a major improvement in the Offensive Coordinator Ryan Day play calling and sequencing, but Don Brown’s pass defense technique and coverage sets were extremely poor and he may need to blitz more like his previous stints as part of an overall better defensive performance hopefully with less time on the field courtesy of the offense.
RANKINGS FROM = SPORTING NEWS TOP 25**ATHLON**USA**STEELE
BC – X-64-63-90
Steele: BC has 28th Toughest schedule and 15th in Winning %., so enough SOS points if BC has a great season.
Group of Death: 3 wins is Spectacular; 2 is the Minimum.
At FSU> 3-1-1-1 Game 11
USC> 16-14-20 -11 Game 3
Clemson> X-21-22-23 Game 7
At Virginia Tech> X-27-28-43 Game 9
3 wins is the Minimum:
Louisville> X-28-33-25 Game 10
Pittsburgh> X -36-49-56 Game 2
Syracuse> X-61-82-57 Game 12
AT NC State> X-65-73-58 Game 6
4 wins the only deal:
Colorado State> X-74-79-78 Game 5
At Wake Forest> X-85-111-101 Game 8
UMASS> X-121-127-127 Game 1
Maine> X-X-X-x Game 4
A Dream 2014 Season Scenario in 3 Acts:
Team, Opponent’s team they play before BC plays them, and record.
Sat, Aug 30 @Massachusetts 1-11
Fri, Sept 5 vs Pittsburgh (Delaware) 7-6
Sat, Sept 13 vs USC (At Stanford) 10-4
Sat, Sept 20 vs Maine (TBA) 10-3
BC has to beat USC and hope USC beats Stanford in a long tough, physical game the week before so they will not head east in a very nasty bad mood looking to beat down someone. BC has open 4-0 to set up Act II!
Sat, Sept 27 vs Colorado State (BYE) 8-6
Sat, Oct 4 BYE
Sat, Oct 11 @ NC State (At Clemson) 3-9 ACC 0-8
Sat, Oct 18 vs Clemson (Louisville) 11-2 7-1
Sat, Oct 25 @ Wake Forest (Syracuse) 4-8 2-6
After Tyler Murphy pulls an upset vs. Cody Kessler and USC, ACT II is where BC has to not let up and Clemson is where Tyler has to lead BC to 7-0 and if we win, will not lose to Wake Forest and that leads to 8-0 and a high ranking and the final ACT III brutal gauntlet.
All 4 will test BC to the bitter end mid-season. Colorado State has a bye which after Maine is not good, since Maine was 10-3 last year; they have been one of the tougher FCS teams. NCSU will be in Year 2 of Dave Doreen and highly touted new QB who had a stellar spring in Jacoby Brissett yet another Florida transfer, so it’s the battle of Florida transfers in Raleigh, but we have an extra week of rest and preparation. Wake Forest is always tough, but has huge graduation losses.
USC and at Clemson are nicely spaced and BC has no excuses every year in my predictions and 8-0 or 7-1 is not as impossible as most believe?
Sat, Nov 1 @ Virginia Tech (Miami/Thursday) 8-5 5-3
Sat, Nov 8 vs Louisville (Florida State/Thursday) 12-1
Sat. Nov 15 (BYE)
Sat, Nov 22 @ Florida State (At Miami) 14-0 8-0
Sat, Nov 29 vs Syracuse (At Pittsburgh) 7-6 4-4
The final brutal gauntlet to get to the big boy bowls or better, the Playoffs.
If BC wants to go to the ACC Title Game and NCAA playoffs, BC has to win 3/4 here, and if BC gets one loss, it better be Coastal VT with 2 extra days of rest. BC gets an extra week of prep vs FSU and that could be a difference maker and they have the annual Cane War before BC.
Syracuse is at home and they have Pittsburgh their rival and that should help BC being our Senior Day too. BC does not catch an opponent’s Senior Day on the road this year.
If BC finishes 11-1, wins the tiebreakers or earns the Atlantic at 7-1, then with this schedule, maybe the 3rd time is the charm since the ACC Power Vortex is in the Atlantic.
BC finishes as ACC Champions with those win SOS points, then shockingly, Jim Swofford throws his Notre Dame leash to the ground and runs through the Jack Swarbrick Notre Dame electric collar shock fence for us Eagles, and then BC has a whole month to prepare for the two playoffs game wins.
BC’s worst case scenario, is that we should win at least 8 games, even if they lose the 4 in the above Group of Death, in the next group of rankings, 3 are at home and NC State lost all 8 ACC Games last year.
BC beats USC and starts 4-0, that Dazzler Candle is lit!
BC should then start at least 7-1 and be ranked and maybe the Gods of Football luck will shine on the Towers and with some miracle luck, win at least 9, with a last 4 split.
There is no team BC can’t beat in 2014!
There ya go.
Arlington, Texas. See you there in January 2015. I’ll leave the roof closed and the lights on.