Conference Realignment: Could Texas Land In The ACC?
by Brian Favat on Sep 5, 2011 9:50 PM EDT
in Conference Expansion
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PrintThis is getting a tad ridiculous, no? According to an Orangebloods.com report on Monday night, if Oklahoma bolts for the west coast and the Big 12 subsequently implodes, one or more Big 12 programs could end up ... in the ACC?
"Several sources said the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big East and Pac-12 are reaching out to schools in the Big 12 in anticipation that the league is about to come apart like an Alka Seltzer tablet in boiling water.
And if Oklahoma darts for the Pac-12, the Big 12 would essentially be done, according to multiple sources across the Big 12."
So which Big 12 program is the ACC reaching out to? Why, only the biggest fish in the college realignment pond:
"But if the Big 12 comes apart, another way for Texas to hold onto LHN may be joining the Atlantic Coast Conference, two sources close to the situation said Monday. ESPN holds the TV rights in the ACC and also owns and operates LHN.
But the ACC would only come into play if Oklahoma left for the Pac-12 and the Big 12 busted up, sources said.
One source close to the situation said the ACC, which is trying to fend off a potential raid by the Southeastern Conference (Virginia Tech continues to be mentioned by sources as an SEC target), would possibly look to add Texas, Syracuse, Connecticut and Rutgers to grow to 16."
Texas in the ACC? Serious? One step closer to realizing the SB Nation Conference Re-Draft Twelve Pack, I see?
Obviously if all hell breaks lose, the Big 12 implodes and the rest of the five BCS AQ conference scramble to super-size, seeing some proactive action from the ACC brass with respect to expansion would be welcome. It also goes without saying that landing Texas would be a huge coup for the conference and add tremendous value to the ACC, even if it meant having to take on Connecticut and Rutgers.
But even with Texas resembling an ACC school academically more than most other expansion options, this seems like an odd marriage of convenience. It would also be one based on an unequal revenue distribution model that I believe will be ultimate end of both the Big 12 and the Big East football/basketball split. It would seem Texas would be just as well off moving to football independence and keeping its lucrative TV contract with ESPN and the Longhorn Network.
Regardless of the legitimacy of Chip Brown's sources and this report, this is one of the few reports that actually mentions the ACC being more proactive in the conference realignment / expansion arms race. It also seems to tip the ACC's hand as to who the conference would seriously entertain taking on if the Big 12 implodes and everyone else scrambles to get to 16.
One thing is for certain: BC is in an infinitely better position to weather any conference realignment armaggedon now than they were eight years ago as a member of the Big East.
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Two problems
One is it’s hard to trust anything Chip says this year. He has been all over the place and much of it turing out wrong. The other is Feldman is tweeting Swofford is denying the report.
1) Dude’s gotta sell Rivals subscriptions, you know?
2) Would you expect Swofford to acknowledge the report? None of these commissioners — not even Slive — want to be perceived as a meddler / raider in this whole thing. As Scott said, “listening, not luring.”
This is a small glimmer of hope for ACC fans that Greensboro isn’t just going to sit back and watch everyone else pick apart the ACC. I still believe the ACC is on much more solid ground than anyone is portraying them to be. But this is a small indication that the ACC might actually look to do something proactive, regardless of the legitimacy of the report.
Editor, BC Interruption
Crazy talk
But fun.
Texas!!!! Wow. BC can relive it’s greatest victory ever at alumni: beating no. 1 Texas in 1976! I hear it was also one of the greatest post game parties ever seen at the Heights!
Have you read Mark Cuban’s blog post about why he believes superconferences are a bad idea?
http://blogmaverick.com/2011/09/04/so-what-should-big-12-schools-do-say-no-to-super-conferences/
Also, I wouldn’t add Texas unless you were cool with them keeping all of their money. UT doesn’t like to share. It would be hilarious if the Big 12 dissolved and everyone but UT found a home. Looks like that Longhorn Network could be their undoing.
Personally, I don’t have a problem with the LHN. Any other institution with as much leverage as Texas would try to do the same thing.
This was a good take on the Cuban post: http://barkingcarnival.fantake.com/2011/09/05/tap-the-brakes-says-mark-cuban/
Editor, BC Interruption
Granted no commissioner is going to tip their hand
But the comments from Swofford seemed like genuine surprise. I don’t think the ACC invites unequal revenue sharing. Considering UT’s past history, bedding down with this dog may give you fleas.
Selfishly, I’d love for the ACC to take a flyer on MU & KU. Both are AAU institutions with some good markets. It’s a geographic outlier, but they are two decent properties that add value to the league.
I think when A&M moves to the SEC and the Big 12 implodes, Missouri is coming with A&M.
Kansas improves the hoops equation, but doesn’t really do anything to help the ACC’s football image problem.
Editor, BC Interruption
Word around the campfire is
MU doesn’t like the SEC culture. They’d much rather end up in the Big 10 (ain’t happening) or the Pac 12. Remember that University Presidents are making these decisions. Rubbing elbows with Duke, BC, UVa, etc. is more attractive than Auburn, LSU or Ole Miss.
Again, just me doing some wishful thinking.
Agreed
Missouri sorta showed its hand last year waiting for a Big Ten invite that never came. Understand that SEC isn’t very appealing to all schools. This whole thing is devolving into one giant game of chicken.
Editor, BC Interruption
Chicken: that pretty much sums it up
Honestly, if I’m the ACC I don’t get involved in the Big 12 sweepstakes. If they need to expand, they can poach the Big East and get something near their general footprint.
The Big East apparently has standing offers out to KU, KSU and MU. It’s probably better to let them space themselves out and evolve into C-USA 2.0. If WVU goes to the SEC, Pitt would be a nice invite for the ACC and Syracuse may be inclined to join.
Agreed
I would stay out of the Texas sweepstakes, not because the Longhorns don’t provide tremendous value, but because revenue inequality would eventually split the ACC too.
I’m leaning towards West Virginia or Louisville as SEC no. 14. No Big Ten expansion (for now), no ACC expansion (for now).
If the ACC were to expand, I agree Syracuse and Pitt are the most logical choices from my perspective. Other fan bases seem to lean West Virginia.
Editor, BC Interruption
let's not forget about USF for ACC if expansion/repalcement occurrs
I trust Mr Brian you saw USF’s continued rise to national prominence last weekend agaisnt ND, and that you know USF is projected to go to a BCS bowl this year.
But please continue to ignore reality and keep your head in the old Big East mud by suggesting Pitt and SYR as ACC teams. Neither team adds much upside to the ACC, except as a sandbox mate for BC. You might like the USF team name, though.
As an impartial observer (Big Ten, Big 12 guy)
USF doesn’t add as much value as a Pitt or a Syracuse. Their academics aren’t that great, either.
why not? the Pittsburg and Upstate NY markets are not as desirbale at Florida market and USF academics while weak are equal to another ACC candiate, WVU. USF has a lot of upside.
When FSU jumps to SEC, USF will be a nice replacement
Hah- just what we need: "upside"
How many times to we need to rehash this with you: USF would be an absymal choice. I can think of numerous AQ programs that would be better fits.
USF is WVU with mediocre football and an even crappier slate of accompanying programs.
by Eagle in Brighton on Sep 6, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Here's the thing
Academics are a high hurdle in the ACC. Pitt and Syracuse don’t have this hurdle given the health of their academics. USF and WVU must present enough value to get over this hurdle. WVU potentially has enough brand value to jump this hurdle, but USF does not.
The reason why Pitt and Syracuse provide more value are because (1) It strengthens the ACC’s New England foothold at the expense of the Big East (2) They expand the ACC’s inventory of quality basketball (something they’ve monetized better than any other league) (3) There is no guarantee that USF even delivers its own market— its a commuter school, in a pro-sports town and a state with several higher-end college brands.
Don’t get me wrong— USF has made great strides over the last decade. They just don’t have enough value to turn a blind eye to academics.
by Gopher86 on Sep 6, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Academics are a high hurdle in the ACC. Pitt and Syracuse don’t have this hurdle given the health of their academics. USF and WVU must present enough value to get over this hurdle. WVU potentially has enough brand value to jump this hurdle, but USF does not.
Well said.
by Eagle in Brighton on Sep 6, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nothing quite like using single-game results as a foundation for your argument for an ACC expansion candidate.
By this logic, Purdue, Navy, Air Force, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut and Tulsa — who have all beaten Notre Dame over the last five seasons — should also be sent feelers about joining the ACC, as they continue to rise to national prominence having knocked off the vaunted Irish.
Editor, BC Interruption
Oh the transitive property
Refuge of the logically deficient.
by Eagle in Brighton on Sep 6, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Smug Rust belt thinking
Hey Brian, ever heard of the shift demographpics in the US? Where do you think the population growth in going? PA? NY? nah. Oh, did you mumble Florida? BINGO!!!! That’s where the population is shifting.
The latest count of the U.S. population shows the demographic center of gravity continued to shift, advancing a decades-old movement of people and political clout away from the Northeast and Midwest. The nation’s population grew 9.7 percent to 308,745,538 in the 2010 Census, with the fastest gains coming in the South and West. Ohio, New York and New Jersey are among the states that will lose seats in Congress because of the shift. States including Texas, Florida and Arizona are witnessing a fresh inflow of people from within the U.S. and beyond the nation’s borders and will benefit from more representation in Washington.
So, thinking about adding Pitt or Syracuse, two qunitessential rust-belt cities in two dying areas of the USA (and with small populatiosn too boot) , is old, discreditted thinking. So I do not think the ACC wants a toehold in the rust belt.
And, you all want to ignore my point that 1) USF is a better candidate than Ptt and Syr in all instances, but 2) is especially viable when FSU jumps to SEC b/c ACC needs to be viable in Florida (for all the reasons stated above). If FSU stays in ACC, USF is less viable, but that does not mean Pitt and Syr are ever good choices.
I hope you all have learned something useful today.
You are welcome
Local markets mean nothing without penetration
Does USF actually deliver their market? Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing areas in the country; it doesn’t mean UNLV is a good candidate for expansion. The same applies to U of Houston, SMU or San Diego State.
Do you honestly believe that Tampa Bay/St. Pete care about USF football? If they have a 4-8 season, do you think people would renew their tickets?
Ultimately, you ignore the most important consideration here: academics. Here’s a case study on the price of admission: FSU doesn’t have good academics, but they got into the ACC. Why? Because they’d won titles and were one of the best programs of the ’90s.
Win something. Win consistently. Challenge for titles. Then come knocking at the door.
if FSU bolts, then USF sounds ok. Way better than Pitt at least. ACC needs a presence in Florida (Miami does not really cut it)
Win something. Win consistently. Challenge for titles. Then come knocking at the door.
Gopher, what schools fit the above that are viable ACC candidates? I believe the answer is NONE.
If we’re operating under the assumption that FSU leaves, then a reactive move to USF could be considered. If we’re assuming the ACC is expanding from 12 to 14 (the original assertion), USF offers little to the tv footprint.
There are no perfect candidates. That’s the point. You either bend on academics or bend on athletics. I was pointing out that for the ACC to look the other way on academics, you have to offer significant value athletically.
I was pointing out that for the ACC to look the other way on academics, you have to offer significant value athletically.
In which case WVU would be the ideal candidate if academics were disregarded. If not, Pitt/’Cuse seem ideal.
Conflating state population gowth with USF’s relative value (as opposed to other candidates) is logically specious.
by Eagle in Brighton on Sep 6, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Not too Brighton
Conflating state population gowth with USF’s relative value (as opposed to other candidates) is logically specious
Oh the transitive property Refuge of the logically deficient, but, to use your phrase, sound “logically deficient.”
EagleBrighton, you don’t sound too ‘brighton’ to me. Maybe you are really from Athol, MA
You sound just like Chauncy Gardner or maybe someone trying a little to hard to sound intelligent.
Correct
All things equal academically, West Virginia offers:
1) higher revenues, as a proxy for fan interest and AD health
2) MUCH stronger hoops
3) stronger football program with loads more history.
WVU also offers a rabid fan base with considerable value when you hold it up against Drive Thru-U (South Florida).
Editor, BC Interruption
If we’re operating under the assumption that FSU leaves, then USF could be considered
Yes, we agree,
No. We don't.
And, you all want to ignore my point that 1) USF is a better candidate than Ptt and Syr in all instances, but 2) is especially viable when FSU jumps to SEC b/c ACC needs to be viable in Florida (for all the reasons stated above). If FSU stays in ACC, USF is less viable, but that does not mean Pitt and Syr are ever good choices.
Your stance is that USF is always a better candidate. Mine is that USF is conditionally a candidate for consideration.
Hair splitting?
Again, no. It’s not.
Your argument is that USF is a better candidate than Pitt and Syr in all instances, which simply is not the case given:
a) academics matter, of which Syracuse and Pittsburgh are on infinitely better footing
b) basketball matters, and USF is a Big East hoops doormat and the only thing keeping USF hoops from the bottom of the annual conference standings is DePaul
c) TV viewership matters, where USF treads VERY lightly in its own market while Syracuse (New York) and Pitt (Pittsburgh) have stronger brands and better followings in their respective TV markets
d) Revenues matter, and Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia and UConn are all much better off financially as a department
e) Fan base and culture matter, and like it or not, USF is still very much perceived as a commuter school where Cuse and Pitt have a better on-campus culture and fan base.
Editor, BC Interruption
Precisely
USF football is, at best, the fourth most popular college football brand in the state behind Florida, Florida State and Miami. All the UCF fans that have been frequenting BC Interruption this week make me think UCF is even more popular in the state than the Bulls … at least this week.
If you expand to include USF, you aren’t instantly owning the Tampa/St. Pete market. This is like saying that the Big East will own the DFW TV market when TCU joins the fold. TCU is probably the 5-6 most popular football program in the Dallas area, behind UT, A&M, OU, Texas Tech and maybe even OSU, Arkansas and other Big 12 schools.
Schools like USF and TCU tread VERY lightly in their own immediate TV market. The ACC is interested in viewership, not TV households / footprints. This is why Syracuse is infinitely more appealing. While the city of Syracuse is technically part of the Rust Belt, there are plenty of alumni that move to NYC post graduation and the Orange have decent viewership numbers in the NYC market.
Editor, BC Interruption
Swofford's denial
“I need to read more to see what we’re doing,” Swofford said laughing. “That’s news to me.”
“I think we see a lot of things that are written, blogged and speculated about right now,” Swofford said. “We’re not a point at doing anything from a conference standpoint other than a lot of discussion, analysis and seeing what the landscape may hold moving forward. That’s way beyond any type of discussion we’ve had.”
http://brett-mcmurphy.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/29532522/31764547
Editor, BC Interruption
Wouldn't the ACC have just as much problem with the LHN
as the PAC12? I can see advantages in going to the ACC, but does it solve any of the problems Texas has with revenue sharing?
I can’t imagine Duke, Carolina and FSU would be thrilled with the LHN. Agree that revenue inequality is certainly not the way to go as a conference.
Editor, BC Interruption
Agreed
Feel like that is the ultimate seed of disunion.
by Eagle in Brighton on Sep 6, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
SB Nation Conference Re-Draft and Perceived Value
On ACC expansion candidates, look at where each of these programs got drafted in the SB Nation Conference Re-Draft:
28 (5th round). West Virginia
29 (5). Syracuse
39 (7). Connecticut
41 (7). Pittsburgh
58 (10). South Florida
66 (11). Florida International
67 (12). Central Florida
The draft was run by six bloggers — myself included — that represented different schools, conferences and very different parts of the country. Clearly we are all collectively delusional having valued West Virginia, Syracuse, UConn and Pittsburgh ahead of USF in filling out these six fake BCS conferences.
Editor, BC Interruption
not so, friend
proud Eagle here. and you?
most people attack the messenger when they can’t deal with the message.
your remark provides a good example of this
Texas & Notre Dame to ACC
I keep hearing and reading that the ACC has feelers to both of these schools and that both are listening? Is it true? No idea. I will say that it does have it’s attraction for both sides. For the ACC it’s obvious…you get to add two of the highest profile schools in the natIon. Ones who are historic on the playing fields and who excel in the class room (an ACC must). On the Texas/ND side, there is stability and partners who would probably allow UT to keep it’s beloved Longhorn Network and ND to keep it’s exclusive NBC deal for minor concessions. And, if the ACC were willing to also bring in Texas Tech and U.Conn or Pitt as well then it could be a done deal. You can bet the Big East would be over the moon to have the ACC target only 1 school in all this and if they could come out losing only WVU to the SEC & say, U.Conn to the ACC while picking up Kansas and K-State then they would be overjoyed.
I wouldnt be shocked to see any of that happen. I can totally see Missouri, Texas A&M and East Carolina joining the ACC (not that far fetched when you consider the SEC has always wanted to break in to the Carolina market) and that Mizzou borders several current SEC states. No, the real question is, Who’s #16? Baylor ? doubt it, but maybe. Va Tech? As much as their fans and the SEC would love it…no. It won’t happen because of what took place when Tech joined the ACC. Like it or not, Tech is now bound to UVA…and just as much as the SEC wants nothing to do w/ UVA, the Cavs want even less to do w/ the SEC. No, actually the ACC won’t lose anyone to the SEC. far more likely is a School like WVU, Tulsa, Houston or TCU. My guess would be WVU, but who knows. The only sure things in all this are…there are some really worried, old geezers about to pee themselves in boardrooms from NY to Cali, we’re in for some major shocks and the rich will get richer…should be fun to watch!
As long as the BCs, UVAs, Dukes and Wakes of the world keep playing one another I’m happy. I love seeing really smart guys trying to knock each others heads off…theres a certain comedy to it when you think about it.
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