Boston College Vs. Wake Forest: Is An Eagles Win Really An Upset?
by A.J Black on Sep 28, 2011 12:42 PM EDT
in Boston College Football
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PrintLet me start this off by saying I have nothing but respect for Wake Forest. Like Boston College they once had a respectful football team, and like Boston College they even made it to an ACC title game. They both had top five NFL draft picks in back to back years in 2008 & 2009. BC and Wake Forest always play each other hard, and during the Riley Skinner years there were some great games including the game in 2008 where Mark Herzlich won the game for BC basically by himself.
Going into this weekend we have two teams that seem to be at the crossroads of their seasons. On the one hand you have Wake Forest, who has 2 wins in September, one less than they had all of the 2010 season. They seem to be improving on all aspects of their game, averaging nearly 300 yards a game passing, and the 18th ranked defense in the country. On the other you have Boston College, mired in three games of complete ineptitude, praying that the return of Montel Harris will signify the turnaround of an apparently lost season.
Everyone in the media is already coming out in support of the Wake Forest team this season. Heather Dinich wrote this morning that if BC beats them it would be an upset. ESPN's experts are predicting a bowl bid for the Demon Deacons, and even Vegas is keeping odds close for the game. Looking at the aforementioned stats, you can see why people would jump on the Demon Deacon bandwagon.
I am not buying Wake Forest. Well at least not yet. They have beaten a completely inept NC State (who BC should thrash when they come to Alumni in November), and Gardner Webb, who before this year I didn't realize even had a football team. But what about the Demon Deacons one loss? That came to Syracuse, who barely beat Toledo last weekend, and should have lost this game if the refs didn't completely blow the game. Is beating a bottom rung ACC team and an FCS school justification for all this praise and an ACC win on the road? Hardly.
But how will the Demon Deacons stack up against a team like Boston College? If BC can establish a solid mix of pass and rush they should be able to control this game. WF defense is susceptible to both the rush (Syracuse ran for 130 yards, 2 TD's) and the pass (NC State threw for over 300 yards). It will be interesting to see what kind of gameplan Spaz puts together to try to exploit the holes in the Wake Forest defense--insert joke about Spaz's game management here--.
On offense, Tanner Price could prove to be a big problem for BC. Against both NC State and Syracuse he threw for nearly 300 yards, and with the Eagles' porous D, he could have a huge day. But with Kaleb Ramsey expected to play, and the return of a now healthy Donnie Fletcher, the Eagles pass defense should be markedly improved over the poor exhibitions we saw against Northwestern, UCF and Duke. Fletcher is going to have the very important job of sticking to wide receiver Chris Givens, who has racked up an impressive start to the season (20 catches, 366 yards 3 TD's. )
Boston College should be able to win this game, if they execute a good game plan, control the game clock and keep Tanner Price off the field. But with Frank Spaziani and the way this team has played, that is a huge if, as they have shown little to inspire confidence this season. But if they can build upon their successes they showed last weekend against UMASS, BC should be fine.
If BC wins this game will it be an upset as Dinich says? No, they are playing at home against a team that has won one FBS game this season. What BC team will actually show up to this game? That is a whole other question.
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One of my criticisms of HD is that she has a tendency to jump at the shiny object during the season without looking at the larger picture … e.g.
Wake Forest beat N.C. State … OMG, you guys! YOU GUYS! Wake Forest has a chance to win the Atlantic Division this year. I’m serious. Clemson is going to fall apart in typical Clemson fashion and FSU just lost to Clemson! There’s a window of opportunity here for the Deacons. They could finally get back to the ACC Championship Game for the first time since 2006!
… All without doing the slightest bit of research on matchups, talent or schedule.
Editor, BC Interruption
Agreed.
That and the Duke going bowling nonsense
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Agreed
Duke is not going bowling, even with the gift that Spaz gave Cutcliffe.
Editor, BC Interruption
by Brian Favat on Sep 28, 2011 1:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Fa Cough Bud Elliot
Hey bud. remember you banned me from your board for defending myself against one of your regualr boardsman? Well how about you get lost, prick.
by waterwater on Sep 28, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Can’t that criticism be said of all of ESPN?
Writer at BC Interruption SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
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Wake should be favored
Our one win was against an FCS program, and we have been out-coached in every other game we’ve played.
Grobe vs. Spaz?
I’ll take Grobe every day and twice on Saturday.
Wake wins 24-14.
GO BC!
Wake Forest has no better chance now that we are 1-0 than we did when we were 0-0.
It still stands at approximately 0%. The NC State win obviously helped our bowl chances, and this weekend is extremely important as well given the strength of schedule from here on out.
Wake Forest '12
Mother So Dear
Right
The game is also on the road; the N.C. State game was at home.
The point spread makes it pretty obvious that this game is a toss up … there’s up “upset” here really when either team wins.
Editor, BC Interruption
THE WINNER HAS THE RIGHT TO BE CALLED...
Bah da da da da da da da, Go Deacs.
Blogger So Dear
by Martin Rickman on Sep 28, 2011 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Better coaches at WF
Somebody smack me down if I’m wrong, since I haven’t seen much of Wake over the years, but they always struck me as well-coached, just lacking the horses most of the time. We have some top-line talent – even if we’re thin – but awful coaching. I don’t know, Spaz worries me with this game (well, with every game). Montel Harris back gets us this one, I think.
Upset
Im surprised how much one win against an FCS team changes perceptions. Were still the team that lost at home to duke and northwestern with their backup qb (and who has since lost to army) and got thrashed by ucf (who since looks pretty mediocre). We absolutely are capable of beating wake but I don’t have any problem with being an underdog. I expect a close game and think the huge gap between grobe and spaz could be the difference
by 31southst on Sep 28, 2011 4:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
if BC isn't...
an underdog, the reality is, they aren’t far from it. You guys make it seem like HD has lost her mind! How can you criticize Wake for WINNING over inferior talent when BC LOST to similar competition? C’mon! I think that BC will pull it out, but I can easily see where the lady is coming from…even if there’s a lil exagerration. I love my alma mater as much as the next grad, but you BC guys…I don’t know. I’m beginning to think that along with being issued a super fan shirt (to wipe up) that BC is handing out knee pads.
False
Were still the team that lost at home to duke and northwestern with their backup qb (and who has since lost to army) and got thrashed by ucf
We were missing a key component then, Montel Harris. Easily our biggest offensive weapon.
Writer at BC Interruption SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
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Harris for Heisman
If BC somehow makes a bowl this year, it will be only because of Montel and that guy deserves the Heisman. It’s clear to me now he was a reason we weren’t sucking it as bad Spaz’ first two years.
Ha
It’s hard to screw up a football program when you hand the ball off to Montel 40 times a game.
Editor, BC Interruption
UCF pretty mediocre?
I wouldn’t exactly say that UCF is mediocre after dropping a pair of road games to BYU (by 7) and FIU (by 7). They’ll still probably run the table during regular season CUSA play and be in the conference championship game. I wasn’t overly impressed with UCF when they played BC, but they aren’t some middling MAC or WAC program, either.
The BC offense was just miserable in that one. The defense couldn’t get off the field (it was 9-3 in the fourth quarter and if BC converts on the opening drive of the second half, it’s a whole different ballgame) and UCF scored 3 fourth quarter touchdowns.
In the Northwestern game, we were simply outcoached. NU should be getting Persa back soon and this is probably a middle-of-the-road bowl team in the Big Ten.
Contrast with Wake, who walloped a crappy D-IAA school and beat N.C. State by a touchdown. Loss to Syracuse after choking a way a big third quarter lead. Even with NU, UCF and Duke’s warts, that’s still a much tougher slate of games than BC has faced through four games.
Editor, BC Interruption
Duke and Northwestern
Why does everyone make a big deal about either of these losses?
Yes, we should have destroyed Duke. But we shanked the GW field goal off the left upright. If we had won, this would gloss over the fact that this team is thoroughly mediocre. Northwestern’s backup QB has a very similar style of play to their starting QB, and BC was in a position to win the game if not for the false start penalty and 10-second run off.
BC was in position to pull out a W (or tie, in case of NU) at the very end. Two wins instead of losses and everyone would still be singing Spaz’s praises.
I’m the furthest thing from a Spaz apologist, but the fact remains that both of these games could have really gone either way. Also, past results do not indicate future success. Just because we are 1-3 with two close losses doesn’t mean that a bad Wake Forest team is going to wax us on Saturday. If you think that, then you need to apply to ESPN to become the WWL’s full-time ACC blogger because you are relying on extreme recency bias.
This is still a Wake team that went 3-9 last year.
Editor, BC Interruption
And yes, I realize that stating Wake’s record last year goes against the “past results doesn’t indicate future success” meme, but Wake is not some gangbusters team. Calling a BC home win over Wake Forest an “upset” is a stretch, which was the original premise for this post.
Editor, BC Interruption
Disagree
I think youre being too generous. Did you really compare colter with persa? Persa was first team all b1g and is a very good college player. We may have made colter look good but that doesn’t mean he actually is solid. We also were in a position to tie as you point out, not win. In any event our d was clearly gassed and we had yet to adjust to their offense. Do you really think a longer game favored us?
As for duke, it doesn’t matter that we missed the fg. For one, not centering the ball and bad clock management by spaz can certainly rear up against wake. Second, let’s not overlook how bad duke is on the road in conference. That was something like their 4th w in the last ten years. They’re epically bad and the fact it came down to a last minute fg says it all, regardless of how it turns out.
I don’t mean to say we won’t beat wake (I think it really is a tossup) but I do think you’re overestimating us and/or underestimating them
by 31southst on Sep 28, 2011 6:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
A longer game clearly does not favor us, but that’s not because either Colter or Persa was in.
In the Northwestern game, we were simply out coached, out conditioned and out prepared. That was the difference in the Northwestern game. Not that Persa played or Colter played. It’s really immaterial imo.
I’ve read “BC lost to Northwestern playing without its starting QB” multiple times – mostly over at ESPN ACC Blog – and it’s really just a lazy analysis. BC was out coached. The BC defense was out conditioned, which goes back to the first point about being out coached. And out prepared – the coaching staff should have prepared BC to defend better against Fitz’s up-tempo attack.
As for the Duke game, my only point was that we were a chip shot FG away from beating them, which would have glossed over the fact that the coaching and offensive play-calling was abysmal.
Editor, BC Interruption
Solid comment.
Bah da da da da da da da, Go Deacs.
Blogger So Dear
by Martin Rickman on Sep 28, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
That was @ Brian.
Bah da da da da da da da, Go Deacs.
Blogger So Dear
by Martin Rickman on Sep 28, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
And I see no problem with the original post.
A team can be favored by 1.5-4 points and not be “better” than the other team. It’s a betting line. I see BC and Wake as very equal honestly. Both bad, but equal.
Bah da da da da da da da, Go Deacs.
Blogger So Dear
Agreed
I just can’t see this game being an “upset” either way. Both teams are not very talented and haven’t played particularly well this year.
To say that Wake would be “upset” on the road at BC is again, lazy. Way to use victories over Gardner-Webb and N.C. State (who is going to be terrible this year, btw … so long, TOB) to color your analysis.
Editor, BC Interruption
So basically what we can all agree on is...
Heather Dinich is the worst.
Bah da da da da da da da, Go Deacs.
Blogger So Dear
OK. Let me weigh in.
This is not a mediocre team. It is poor 3-8? 2-9? Mediocre? Too much shoulda, coulda, woulda, game after game after game. So wake has wins vs. crappy teams? I mean, Umass? I dunno. I’ve just read this every week about how the other team hasn’t beaten anybody. Then they play BC. Reading alot about how BC could have beaten NW and Duke but UCF beat the shit out of BC. I know. It was close until the 4th quarter. Right. BC was dominated up and down the field in that game. So, POINT? Yeah, if BC wins, it’s an upset. Just about every game from here out will be an upset.
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