What Kind Of Season Would It Take For Boston College To Fire Frank Spaziani?
Last week while I was sitting in the airport I came across Dennis Dodd's Hot Seat Index. I was curious to see where Coach Spaziani fell on the list. Even with a fan base who has grumbled with the lack of results, Gene DeFilippo has made it pretty clear that he has been satisfied with his head coach.
Using Dodd's system, let's see how Spaz's job safety stacks up to the rest of the ACC (0= Can't Be Touched, 5= Must Win Now).
0.0 -- Frank Beamer (Virginia Tech)
0.5 -- Jimbo Fisher (Florida State)
1.0 -- Paul Johnson (Georgia Tech)
1.5 -- Frank Spaziani (Boston College), Al Golden (Miami), Mike London (Virginia), Jim Grobe (Wake Forest)
2.0 -- Randy Edsall (Maryland), Tom O'Brien (N.C. State)
2.5 -- Dabo Swinney (Clemson), David Cutcliffe (Duke)
3.0 -- Butch Davis (North Carolina)
Dodd gives Spaz a 1.5, meaning "Very Safe, Change Highly Unlikely," which is what we would expect. But after two seasons of declining results, what would it take for Spaz to be on the Hot Seat in 2012? What kind of record would he have to produce this season and what games would he have to lose?
First off, the "Fire Spaz" sentiment will really pick up if he loses the first two to Northwestern and UCF. Opening the season 0-2 against two solid non-conference opponents will quickly turn the alumni against him, and the "Fire Spaz" sentiment will start again (mostly by me). In recent seasons, BC has started the year with a cupcake schedule (Kent State, Weber State, etc.), so fans are going to want to see the Eagles win at least one of these games against quality team.
Losing to either Duke or UMass would also be unforgivable, as both programs should be easy wins for the Eagles. I can't even imagine what the fanbase would do if BC lost to either of these teams. Actually, I do. They'd just stop showing up to the games. If BC somehow loses to Duke or UMass AND loses to Wake Forest, Spaz is going to be in a world of hurt. He has got to take all of these gimme games because you don't want to go into our October schedule hovering around .500.
For the remainder of the schedule -- Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame and N.C. State -- Spaz has got to win at least two of those games. If he loses all of them, or can only manage one win, his job security has got to be in trouble. Clemson, Maryland and N.C. State should be wins. But if the offense continues to fall on its collective face like last season and Rettig can't throw the ball, all those games will be tough. A second straight season without a marquee win against a good ACC opponent has got to be a blemish on Spaz's resume, but would it be enough to fire him?
So what kind of overall record what would it take for GDF to finally say enough is enough and remove Spaz? 5-7, failining to qualify for a bowl for the first time in more than a decade? I say no. Gene has an unhealthy loyalty to his coach and even that kind of season wouldn't be enough to break it. If Spaz is going to be canned, BC is going to have to tank to the tune of a 3-9 season, which I don't think will happen. But with Spaz at the helm, who knows.
I'm not advocating that Spaz be fired, just theorizing what it would take for GDF to pull the plug. What do you think it would take?
Tomorrow we will examine what kind of season it would take for Spaz to be fully embraced by the fan base.
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it would take an interview with an NFL team
Jagodzinski was fired for his “disloyalty.” DeFillippo cannot fire the next coach without some sort of scandal.
Terrible Season
Wouldn’t keeping Spaz after a horrendous season be scandal enough?
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3-9 or 4-8. I don’t think 5-7 would get it done.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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Agreed
It certainly depends on who the losses are to, but I think Spaz is in pretty good shape this year. Schedule isn’t too difficult eithre
Wake Forest '12
Mother So Dear
Schedule isn't too difficult?
Road games: UCF, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Notre Dame, Miami
Northwestern, Florida State and NC State at home. Those teams aren’t too shabby either.
Editor, BC Interruption
by Brian Favat on Jul 12, 2011 6:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
4-8 is my worst
Gene has backed himself into a corner with Spaz, but he’s also proven himself overly invested in football (I’m happy football is his top priority, just not how he chooses to act on that fact). I think 4-8 would get it done. Ticket sales are already awful so that coupled with a bad season and no bowl would really hit the school in the wallet.
depends more on how competitive team plays, then record alone
If Spazooo goes 4-8 and the 4 wins were ugly (beats duke/wake due to lucky pic 6) and the 8 loses are uglier, he might be launched. However, if he has 8 losses as the result of flukes, bad breaks in otherwise close games, but BC played decent ball in most games, he is still safe for one more season, but with a (very) warming seat.
if he goes 3-9, with win only against Duke, UMass and Wake, and the 9 loses include VaTech and Clemson style blowout – e.g. Spaz shows he can’t put a very competitive team on the field – then I can see him getitng canned this year.
2-10 will DO IT.
5-7 won’t do it, unless it 4 or 5 blowout losses (FSU, ND, VT, MIA) — showing he can’t coach at a high level.
also, if the stadium is empty and no games on TV b/c our on field product sucks, he could be launched too. GDF wants his $$$ flow, (ask Al Skinner)
Some of those ratings are off.
Grobe is too low. (2.0)
Golden is too high. (1.0
Edsall is too high (I’d put in the 1.5 tier, but could see 1.0)
Beamer on same level as TOB. Really? REALLY? That’s insane. Beamer was 8-0 in the ACC last year.
Every single coach on the 2.5 tier is too low. I could see Cutciff as only a 3 if only because no one is likely to be paying attention unless the basketball program implodes. But the other two belong anywhere from 4.0-5.0. A losing record from either is 100% you’re fired, and that is the very definition of “Must Win Now”.
Higher Expectations
I don’t know, I think Dabo has to do much better than that. 8-4? The recruiting and talent is there now, he has no excuse but to win. Clemson is expecting it.
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Schedule
Clemson has a pretty unforgiving schedule this year. 8-4 may be asking too much …
After two cupcakes …
Home: Auburn, Florida State, BC, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Away: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, South Carolina
Editor, BC Interruption
Corrections
Two of the ratings were off. Beamer is actually a 0.0. Butch Davis is a 3.0. Here are the updated rankings:
0.0 — Frank Beamer (Virginia Tech)
0.5 — Jimbo Fisher (Florida State)
1.0 — Paul Johnson (Georgia Tech)
1.5 — Frank Spaziani (Boston College), Al Golden (Miami), Mike London (Virginia), Jim Grobe (Wake Forest)
2.0 — Randy Edsall (Maryland), Tom O’Brien (N.C. State)
2.5 — Dabo Swinney (Clemson), David Cutcliffe (Duke)
3.0 — Butch Davis (North Carolina)
Agree that Edsall is way too high for just starting out. Same for Golden. Both should be 0.5 or 1.0. London too high.
I actually think Cutcliffe is too high. He’s only been at Duke 3 full seasons and improved that program quite a bit. Plus, no one cares. 1.5. At the very least, Dabo and Cutcliffe shouldn’t be on the same line. Dabo should be much higher. Like 3.5-4 territory. Davis should also be higher. 4.0.
Editor, BC Interruption
Also
Paul Johnson as a 1.0? I realize the Jackets are only a year removed from an 11-3 ACC Championship season, but GT went just 6-7 last year — the program’s lowest win total since 1996 (5-6 under George O’Leary). If GT struggles to 6 or less wins, pressure has got to be on Johnson a bit more after this season, no?
Then again, this is a school that gave Paul Hewitt 11 seasons.
Editor, BC Interruption
Agree
I figure at this point Butch Davis has to be a 5.5, as in if you don’t win the ACC this year you’re gone.
Spaz should be hovering around a 3-3.5 as well, he’s just lucky our AD is completely deluded. I know back to back ACCG are unrealistic expectations, but the last two seasons have been quite the tail off. Going backwards anymore and we are talking not making a bowl, playing sub .500 ball and sitting in the ACC basement. All which are completely unacceptable.
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Don’t forget that many VT fans fail to realize they are maxed out. I’d say he should be .5
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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Good post BCH
Opening the season 0-2 against two solid non-conference opponents will quickly turn the alumni against him, and the “Fire Spaz” sentiment will start again (mostly by me).
Good to see you got your stones back! (now just be careful on Twitter!)
I would love to see you write some posts. Might not agree with them, but you are certainly opinionated.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Thanks
I did do a cut and paste post on Clemson. Maybe I’ll seek Brian’s good graces and try another
quick solution
The first two games will tell the tale. Last year’s ND game was a warning shot. The team came out flat at home against their biggest rival. Three tds in the first 10 minutes.
"Came out flat at home"
It’s not like BC was starting a true freshman QB who hadn’t taken a snap in his college career that night or anything …
Editor, BC Interruption
I'm not excusing the defense
Just pointing to the fact that the coaching staff made a calculated risk starting Rettig figuring that the Notre Dame game wasn’t as important in the grand scheme of things relative to the seven other ACC contests that were still on the schedule.
Though this doesn’t excuse the fact that the coaching staff decided Shinskie was the best man for the job at the beginning of the season.
Editor, BC Interruption
Shinskie Was the better than Marsco and the incumbent. So he was the best of bad choices But Ol bud foster knew he could not take a hit and keep his composure , and so bud sent in some assassins and that was the end of Uncle Dave as a viable QB
We actually moved the ball quite well in first halfmof VT game, Grrrrr.. Please be good Rettig
Folks I think you are forgetting what Gene values most
LOYALTY.
Spaz could go 2-10 this year and Gene would keep Spaz. The backlash from the media for firing Spaz after the Jags fiasco would be such a hit to his already shaky reputation that Gene probably wouldn’t make the move.
If BC god forbid goes 2-10 and Spaz isnt canned I wont be yelling for his head…I’ll be screaming for Gene’s.
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by A.J Black on Jul 12, 2011 10:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't understand the Dabo Swinney on a hot seat deal
Unless he comes out and absolutely tanks in the first 5 games (highly possible), and some sort of academic/recruiting scandal occurs, he will not lose his job. The university and athletic department are so alright with underachieving and under-performing results that they will never let him go unless he goes several straight years of issues. Not to mention the hiring on of basically a new offensive staff at very least gives him until the end of the 2012 season to lose his job
Don't give up, don't ever give up ~ Jim Valvano
Your calling Clemson a "should win" for BC? sounds like at least a coin toss to me.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Leahy --- Gene--- Spaz
Does anyone else feel that Leahy being completely disconnected from athletics at BC could actually be the root of all problems since it means GDF isn’t held accountable?
Sort of. I think GDF has been a blank check to do whatever he wants to with no interference from up above. On one hand that is a good thing, you don’t want your Athletic program being second guessed by the administration every time they hire or fire a coach, or go after a recruit. On the other hand if GDF falls in love with a coach, like he apparently has with Spaz and refuses to do anything about it, there may be no accountability from the school. But then again, there is no proof of that, and I don’t think any of us know what Fr. Leahy thinks about the AD at this point.
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The author said @ Clemson should be a win for BC
Just want to say that I disagree. Clemson is significantly more talented, they are the home team and they will likely have a decent offense this year after significant offensive coaching upgrades. They will also likely continue to play stout defense under Steele. That all adds up to a probable loss for BC IMO.
but Clemson will self-destruct
You fail to consider that Clemson is its own worse enemy. They will do something stupid.
Also, the new offense is not a plus for Clemson in 2011. It is a complicated offense wholly unlike the former Clemson offense. By all acocunts, their new young QB is not yet up to the task. Maybe in 2012, 13, he’ll get it, but not this year.
Coming into the BC game, Clemson will be coming off three tough, tough games. I expect theywill have lots of injuries (there are a lot of injury prone p*ssies on Clemson) and will be psychologically deflated — all giving BC an edge.
It will be a tough game for BC, but I’d agree with True Colors in that its a toss up game.
Last time BC went to Clemson
BC had something like 54 yards of total offense for the entire game and was not even competitive. Clemson didn’t self-distruct that day. No reason to assume they will this year. I don’t like Clemson either, but I’m not going to make stuff up about them sucking because it’s what I want to believe even though it’s not really true.
Agreed. Not a slam dunk but like 75% for Clem
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Also, on Rettig
I don’t think he’s a bad QB, he might actually be pretty good, but in the BC games I watched last year your receivers get no separation from FSU, VT, Clemson or anyone with talented DBs. I don’t think it’s fair to put that on Rettig.
BC needs a massive upgrade at WR to have the expectation of passing the ball effectively against well coached ACC secondaries with elite talent.
elite hogwash
ACC secondaries with elite talent.
elite talent is that a code word for 4* recruits or ESPn 150s? Me thinks so.
Interesting that your NFL first round QB had his worst game last year against a team without such elite talent. he had 3 picks, negatvie rushing yards and his second lowest QBr of the season.
So, it really is not all about “elite” talent , it is more about schemes (just ask Clemson about what elite talent does for them). BC’s defense had great schemes last year agaisnt FSU and they confused the heck out of Ponder. Likewise, our receivers last year did not have very good routes, route running or overall offensive schemes to be a part of. With our new OC — Bret Favre’s former QB coach — we will have much better overall offensive schemes that might even confuse your hero Greg Reid!
Let’s hope its a cold night in Chestnut Hill when FSU arrives!
Talent without schemes is certainly waisted (Example: FSU @ OU) new scheme young secondary
But if you have great talent and scheme, it’s tough for recievers to get seperation.
FYI and i know it sounds petty, but…you did know Ponder hurt his elbow in the first quarter of that game right? threw several floaters, and never looked good the entire rest of the way as the injury wouldn’t fully recover. He got pulled after throwing one in the dirt in the ACC champ game, because of it.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Schemes definitely matter...
but so does having great players every year. If you don’t think players matter at all, then there’s really nothing else to talk about here. Good schemes + good players = championships. Good schemes with average players = 8-4 and good players in average schemes = 8-4. This has proved its self out time and time again each and every year.
must be a FSU thing
First, your overall blog master, Bud Elliot (Billy’s brother), refused to speak to me because he accused me of using “outliers” in an argument – What nerve i have! Presenting an outlier – AN OUTLIER (elliot apparently read Malcom Gladwell’s book )— as statistically significant data on a sports blog (even though there was zero statistically significant data to begin with in that prior argument.. oh never mind). My word. How terribly cheeky I am.
Now, you say, this in substance:
If you don’t argree with me, then there’s really nothing else to talk about here
It must be an FSU thaaang: If you don’t agree with me, I will not listen to you; I will not talk to you. Is that how “y’all” argue down Flo-rid-A?? I know that is how the Clemson Shakin my Johnson blog dudes roll: if you disagree, you are out (and, I am out! banned, gone etc.)
You should at least quote what I typed if you want to argue
I typed “if you don’t think players matter at all, then there’s really nothing else to talk about here”. You don’t have to agree with me, I’m sure there are tons of BC fans that think having talented players matter. As an example, wouldn’t you take Matt Ryan back tomorrow if he had any eligibility left? If so, that pretty proves my point. If not, then like I said, there’s really nothing else to discuss because if you really believe having the type of players that the other 15 or so programs that are in the running for the National Championship are recruiting every year doesn’t matter and I do and we won’t be able to bridge that gap.
I think it’s a reasonable statement that most people who follow college football would agree that having good players is a very important piece to a successful team.
Don’t bother. waterx2 is a troll.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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not so
Bud if you’ve got an argument, make it. Do not resort to name calling b/c you got nopthing good to say. I am a proud BC graduate and not a troll. You can be banned for name calling you know.
It is not the critic who counts; The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; and if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.
AND YES, great players matter
Great players matter, for sure. But having 4 or 5 recruiting stars does not make one “elite talent” . Do not kid your self that just because FSU has touted recruits, it has lots of great players — it has just a few great players. Just ask Clemson or UNC about the recruit-talent-team success disconnect. In fact, as for great players,Since 2002, I think BC has more NFL first round picks than Clemson or UNC, and almost the same as FSU (6 vs 8) . If I am wrong, let me know
What about the overall draft, not just the first round?
Run those numbers over the last 10 years comparing BC to FSU, UNC, Clemson and Miami and get back to me.
Like I said above, if you don’t think having a roster with 60-70% of your players being guys that half to most of the elite teams in the country are recruting, the there’s really nothing else to talk about. It doesn’t matter how many stars a guy has, if nearly every other program that’s in the running for a National Title wants him, he must be pretty darn good. If you have a lot of those guys that everyone else wants, that usually translates into success. History shows those are the teams that win it all every single year.
NFL players
I picked first rounders b/c those are “elite players” — game changers.
But if you want to go with player in the NFL, i found some stats. I’ll use 2010 and 2008
2008: MIA 46, FSU 39, UNC 22, BC 22, Clemson 14
2010: MIA 43, FSU 27, UNC 23, BC 19, Clemson 18
So what’s you point? Is MIA way more elite than FSU? I am sure you’d say no. But why if NFL stats are the measure?
And NO: Clemson and UNC with their much talked about recruiting classes do not play better football than BC, do not produce more first round NFL draft choices and do not produce more NFL players.
Any more theories you’d like to try out? Better call you leader Master Eliot to the rescue (have I used outliers??)
let's see
Run those numbers over the last 10 years . . . and get back to me
So, I am getitng back to you: From the 2002 to 2011 draft is a decade of drafts. It is 10 years of NFL drafting, which is why i picked the number. Work on your math, ’ol boy.
if nearly every other program wants him, he must be pretty darn good.
a fool’s argument; a Clemson-like argument. Just look at the some BC NFL picks, Ryan, BJ Raji, Castonzo, Ron Brace, etc. Keuchley (futuer NFL pick) NOT ONE OF THEM WAS recruited by the teams you must consider to be “elites” in the race. So much for that argument.
By the way are Oregon, TCU, Boise elites in your book? Before 2-3 years ago? I did not think so. Are MIA , Nebraska and ND still elite? Have they been elite in recent memory?
Clearly you're only here to pick a fight
Time to clock out. Best of luck to your team this season.
All I see is the 08 10' data what about the decade? Seriously not being scarcastic.
Also, part of the battle is recruitning, the other part is coaching. Clemson and for the past decade FSU has waisted more talent than I care to remember. It’s sad when guys draft low, or get picked up later and still end up doing better in the NFL than they did in college. But that’s been the story of our life lately.
BC is not wake. You guys get some talent and you certainly coach them up! But is it enough to perform at a high level? that’s the question.
His specific point was recievers. Matt Ryan consistently had to throw perfect balls against teams like that… and he did. that’s why he’s an NFL QB and first rounder. But its too much to expect that as a regular occurance.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
But is it enough to perform at a high level? that’s the question.
why don’t you ask Bobby Bowden in his retirement if BC can perform at the level of FSU. I think you know what he will say.
You guys really think you are all that. Let’s wait till we get some results that are impressive before you fit your self with a crown.
It is not the critic who counts; The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; and if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.
Fsu wasn't performing at the level of Wake Forrest in the 2000's man. That's a horrible arugment.
No crown here, games still have to be played…but it’s just denying the present reality to state anything other than FSU is the clear team to beat in the division moving forward.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Look at how BC has regressed for 4 or 5 years now…
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Watched a few BC games last year...
and the O-line got a good push in those games with Harris running behind them; BC lost three starters on the line—the center and a gaurd return, how are those new starters coming along?
"Fast Eddie: No bar?
Cashier: No bar, no pinball machines, no bowling alleys, just pool... nothing else. This is Ames, mister."
From the movie--The Hustler
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