One (Very) Bold Boston College Basketball Prediction For 2011-2012

Nick Fasulo of the SB Nation hoops blog Searching for Billy Edelin recently posted some bold college basketball predictions for the 2011-12 season. One of Nick's five predictions spells utter doom and gloom for Donahue and the Eagles this season:

"Boston College will win less than one conference game - It's a harsh statement to make, but it just may happen. Steve Donahue's club is dealing with a somewhat unfathomable roster turnover. Their leading returning scorer (Danny Rubin) brings with him only 4.1 points-per-game in even though he started 23 of the 29 games he suited up for, and the rest of the starting five will likely be filled out by newcomers. The situation stings a bit more for the Superfans when you realize this mess is entirely the result of former coach Al Skinner's inept recruiting abilities. You never root for an overmatched team to lose, but it would be sort of fascinating to see this club drop an Ofer in the ACC."

So by less than one conference game, you mean ZERO, right?

Look, we've been through this before. Sure, BC will be in straight up rebuilding mode next season, but there is no way that BC basketball is worse than 2010-2011 Wake Forest. Wake went just 1-15 in ACC play this year, the worst record in the ACC since Maryland went 1-13 ... in 1989. 

I could point to Donahue's highly touted freshman class as a reason that BC will win A game in the ACC this year. But the bigger reason that there's no way this happens is the way this year's schedule breaks for BC. Three of the five programs BC will face twice will be breaking in new coaches and new systems -- Georgia Tech, N.C. State and Miami -- as well as a Virginia Tech team that has lost a lot and Wake (see above). There's just no way BC goes 0 for 10 with that favorable of an ACC slate this season.

Finally the odds of the Eagles actually pulling off this ignominious feat are slim to none. If you consider history as a guide, of the 469 basketball seasons played by teams in the ACC (including 18 by South Carolina), this feat has been accomplished just four times -- twice in the 1950s when Clemson went 0-9 and 0-14 in back-to-back seasons (1954-1955) and twice in the 1980s, when Georgia Tech (1981) and Maryland (1987) went 0-14 in league play. That's a less than 1 percent chance of happening historically, and with two more ACC games to play in 2010-11, the chances of this happening are even more remote.

Besides, I'm not betting against Steve Donahue. BC will win at LEAST one ACC game. C'mon, Nick. Let's be serious.

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