Boston College Football: Predicting The 2011 Season
by EagleAboveTheRim on May 13, 2011 11:05 AM EDT
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[Ed. note -- Edited, Front Page'd]
With a new season of the horizon, Frank Spaziani can't wait to continue his quest to be most boring and dull coach in America. Well, at least he can really run a defense.
Let's look at BC's offseason storylines so far: BC hires Kevin Rogers as new offensive coordinator to replace Gary Tranquill. Bringing in 23 recruits, including four 4-star recruits, according to Rivals.com. Anthony Castonzo picked 22nd by Colts. Mark Herzlich not drafted in NFL Draft, drafted 51st in UFL draft, passes on UFL, at least for now.
Now, lets pick every game, game by game:
- Northwestern: Win-Northwestern has talent, especially QB Dan Persa, but BC's defense is just too strong in this game, and Montel Harris runs wild.
- at Central Florida: Win-It'll be a tough win, but UCF is losing talent, so BC escapes with the win.
- Duke: Win-Rout here. Duke is losing all their great receivers besides Connor Vernon. Plus, BC is at home this time.
- UMass: Win-BC won't lose to a team just entering the FBS.
- Wake Forest: Win-BC will rock Tanner Price again, and Rettig has a big day.
- at Clemson: Loss-Clemson wins this nail-biter because of their home-field advantage
- at Virginia Tech: Win-The Hokies lose too much on offense to win this game.
- at Maryland: Loss-I hate to say it, but Maryland made a great hire in Randy Esdall. This game could go either way, but I'm picking the Terps.
- Florida State: Win-I'm not buying E.J. Manuel. I didn't see a lot in him, and he is raw as a passer. Also, looked what happened when BC went to Talahassee last year. BC's defense dominated the game, and got inside Christian Ponder's head. BC gets into Manuel's head too.
- N.C. State: Win-Who is NC State's QB? If they had Russell Wilson, this game would be very close, but they lost Nate Irving and now their only good QB? Good ol' Tom O'Brien. BC wins and sends the message to O'Brien "good riddance!"
- at Notre Dame: Win-Notre Dame will get its preseason love, but if Rettig had played the whole game last year, I still firmly believe BC would have won. Notre Dame is good on offense, but Chase Rettig has a great day and wills BC to victory. Its time for Superfans to invade Notre Dame Stadium again.
- at Miami: Loss-Miami is too tough at home, and I think the 'Canes pull through and win the Coastal Division this year. Close, but I'm going with the 'Canes.
That's brings BC to a record of 9-3, a national ranking of #24, and a solid season for BC fans. I think it's going to be a good year.
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Optimism -- Pass It On*
While I love the optimism, I’m going lower than 9-3 right now. I don’t think BC will be 5-0 heading into the Clemson game. I think BC drops one of the first two games against NU or UCF.
Also, 3-3 on the road? You have us beating some pretty decent teams on the road, and Spaz hasn’t exactly proven that he can coach and win in meaningful road games in his first two years.
- Paid for for the Foundation for a Better Life
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by Brian Favat on May 13, 2011 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I touched the ball coach.
God those commercials are sappy.
Win/Loss
I thought I’d try it using the Tomahawk Nation proportional win share idea:
9/3 – Northwestern: Odds of winning – 60% (first game of the year)
9/10 – @UCF: Odds of winning – 80% (they play Charleston Southern the week before)
9/17 – Duke: Odds of winning – 90% (the play Stanford the week before)
9/24 – UMass: Odds of winning – 99% (they play URI the week before)
10/1 – Wake Forest: Odds of winning – 90% (they have a bye the week before)
10/8 – @Clemson: Odds of winning – 45% (they play @Va Tech the week before)
10/22 – @Virginia Tech: Odds of winning – 35% (they play @Wake Forest the week before)
10/29 – @Maryland: Odds of winning – 55% (they play @FSU the week before)
11/3 – FSU (Thur): Odds of winning – 45% (they play NC State the week before)
11/12 – NC State: Odds of winning – 60% (they play UNC the week before)
11/19 – @ND: Odds of winning – 35% (they play Maryland at a neutral game at FedEx Field in Landover, MD the week before)
11/26 – @Miami: Odds of winning – 45% (they play @USF the week before)
Overall – 7.39 wins, 4.65 wins in conference, which sounds about right to me. Also, I consider this the dividing line for a successful season. 8-4 or better is a good year and sets us up for a big 2012 (when I think we can win the ACC). 7-5 or worse is another disappointment and confirms my doubts that Spaz won’t win anything while HC.
every year that FSU has under the new coaching regime
probably reduces our chances of winning the ACC
I made this run chart for EJ
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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I have BC at 6-6.
0.75 NWST
0.50 at UCF
0.90 Duke
1.00 Umass
0.90 WF
0.25 at CU
0.18 at VT
0.40 at MD
0.28 FSU
0.50 NCSU
0.28 at ND
0.30 at UM
Favored in 4 games, pulling the upset in 2 more.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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Interesting to see
I respect your football analysis so seeing your picks is interesting, but obviously I disagree with some picks. The main problems I have (great than a 15% difference):
.5 vs .8 at UCF – UCF loses a ton of players and had no impressive wins last year. I think BC wins by double digits.
.25 vs. .45 at Clemson – I understand us being the underdog but they lose some bigtime players and we did beat them last year.
.18 vs. .35 at VT – I don’t think we disagree all that much (neither of us really thinks BC will win) but VT loses Taylor, Williams, and Evans, so I think their offense will take a big step back while BC’s offense (mainly due to the Rogers upgrade from Tranq) will get better. Again though this isn’t a huge thing.
.28 vs. .45 FSU – As you’re well aware, we get you guys on a short week when you have to travel. We also always play you guys close including last year at FSU.
UCF does lose a lot, but they also have WVU-level admission standards and brought in a ton of JUCO studs. I’m warning you, they have a lot of talent. There are kids on that team FSU and UF wanted but could not get in to school.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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How quickly that talent gels is probably the more apt question than if it is any good.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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FSU has academic restrictions
this is news to me. IF you don’t get caught cheating you pass…. i get it.
Re Clemson:
BC typically wins with quality line play, agreed? I just don’t see much of that this year. I also think Clemson has arguably the top group of assistants in the country, though Dabo is still there. BC did beat them last year, but I see Clemson improving much more on offense than BC, with a similar defensive backslide. And the game is in death valley.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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Also, if you want to point out that BC confused Ponder, you should also point out that in a normal game Ponder would have been pulled for injury, but the backup was unavailable (also injury), so he was left in.
And BC’s offense gained 130 yards on its first two drives because FSU had mislabeled a tight end as a wide receiver, thus opening two massive holes through which Harris ran. Once they realized he was a tight end, BC gained less than 100 yards the rest of the entire game.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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That's a fair point
but you’re only looking at it from the “how will FSU be better” perspective and ignoring equal improvements for BC. For one, I don’t especially care how yards were gained – if you want to ignore mental mistakes, it’s easy to explain how a team could have gone undefeated. That said, I don’t doubt that it FSU has some mixups but it was also Chase Rettig’s first road start of his career and only his 2nd-5th quarters of playing time (he got hurt around the end of first quarter against ND). He will undoubtedly be better this year and between that, our WR experience, and Rogers instead of Tranq, I think we will have an FBS average offense this year, which is a huge step up from last year. Couple that with a top-25 defense and I think 8-4 is very possible.
Yes, I think Rettig and the offense will be a better offense, but most likely FSU’s staff won’t mislabel a player in team meetings again.
Ditching Tranq was a huge move for y’all. I don’t know if Rogers will be successful, but Tranq was terrible.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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You can’t possibly make the call of FSU winning simply because their “staff won’t mislabel a player in team meetings again.”
Nice strawman. I never claimed that.
I think FSU wins because it has better players at probably 19/22 positions and better coaching.
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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I think the first part of your statement about better players is said every year around this time, then it’s …
2005: Loss
2006: Win — made FSU look like a high school football team that year
2007: Loss
2008: Win
2009: Win
2010: Loss
FSU didn’t technically win the 2007 game, either. ;)
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I can’t argue with that, except the 2007 stuff. Matt Ryan leading TD pass thrower- to FSU
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Vacated
No, no, seriously Bud, Florida State didn’t win in 2007.
:)
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Oh was that an academic year?
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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8-4
Losses to Tech, Clemson, Miami, FSU
The only predicament is, deciding what to put on....The Big Boy. VAN GUNDY!!!! hahahaha
Now Ronaldo, long way out, WHAT A GOAL! not too far out for him, on a night Manchester United had to score they have scored inside 6 minutes, and its the man from Portugal who has hammered it home and hammered a 1-0 lead for United
Winning at ND and at V-Tech in one season?
Id be pumped if this happened in 2011.
5% chance both happen imo
'11: Minimum Goal: Win 10 games again
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 3rd in offense, 107th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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My Prediction
Northwestern- Win
UCF- Win
UMass- Win
Wake Forest- Easy Win
Clemson- Win
VT- Loss
Maryland- Win
FSU- Loss
NC State- Win
Notre Dame- Loss (Sigh)
Miami- WIn
9-3… same as BCI just don’t think BC has the bullets to get past FSU and I have a bad feeling about the ND game.
Odds of beating any team on the road with Spaz … slim.
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Road Games
What is our best road win under Spaz? Was it the Cuse game to end last year? I can’t think of anything else decent.
Yep, Syracuse
Close wins over Maryland, Virginia, Duke and Wake Forest are Spaz’s other road/neutral wins.
5-7 overall with a bunch of blowout losses in there.
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Optimism
The team is bad. There is no enthusiasm. 6-6 seems about right. Dream on about winning at ND or VT. Beamer and Kelly will outsmart and outcoach. Coughloin “tore off the roof”. He had them “walking on water”. Spaziani, with so much promise, has them “drowning”. He treated the seniors with contempt. He deserves to be treated likewise.
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