Boston College Basketball: Projecting Next Year's Starting Five
by Brian Favat on Mar 22, 2011 9:00 AM EDT
in Boston College Basketball
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With the departures of Trapani, Southern, Raji, Dunn, Paris, Kowalski, Cahill and Mosakowski, the Eagles are set to lose 62.4 percent of their total offensive output from this season. Donahue will be left with just five players who logged minutes in 2010-11 -- Reggie Jackson (34.1 min/game) ... long drop off, then ... Danny Rubin (16.8), Gabe Moton (14.8), Dallas Elmore (14.5) and Peter Rehnquist (1.8).
It goes without saying that next year's men's basketball roster will look completely different from this year's roster.
Next season, BC will add Oregon transfer Matt Humphrey to the list of active roster players. Humphrey was a member of the team this year but sat out the season per NCAA transfer rules. Humphrey is strictly a 2-guard, and is a bit of a streaky shooter that loves to shoot threes. Sounds perfect for Donahue's system, and I'm sure the streakiness in his shot isn't anything that the Don can't work on in the offseason. Just put him on the Biko Paris off-season practice regime.
Donahue has also signed six recruits to the Class of 2011, including PG Jordan Daniels, SG Lonnie Jackson, SF Eddie Odio, PFs Ryan Anderson and Dennis Clifford and C Kyle Caudill. All six figure to get a bunch of playing time right away.
So what will next year's roster look like?
If Jackson doesn't jump early, BC's starting five might look like this:
G - Reggie Jackson (Sr.) - 18.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, 4.3 RPG
G - Matthew Humphrey (Jr.) - 5.4 PPG, 0.6 APG, 2.5 RPG (2009-10 Oregon stats)
G - Gabe Moton (So.) - 2.5 PPG, 1.0 APG, 1.3 RPG
F - Ryan Anderson (Fr.) or Dennis Clifford (Fr.)
C - Kyle Caudill (Fr.)
I suppose you could interchange Moton for Elmore as one of the starting guards, but Donahue seemed to favor Moton over Elmore down the stretch (Moton averaged 19 minutes a game over BC's final 10 games, while Elmore averaged only 9 over the same span). Moton also seems to have more upside simply due to the fact that he's an underclassman.
I'm also not sure whether Donahue will go back to Danny Rubin or go with one of the freshmen.
If Jackson does jump early, roster decisions get a bit more complicated. The most pressing question becomes who runs point? Would Donahue throw incoming recruit Jordan Daniels to the fire, or ask Moton, Elmore or Humphrey to run the offense? My guess is he'd make a clean break from last year's roster and start Daniels right away.
The starting lineup then becomes:
G - Jordan Daniels (Fr.)
G - Matthew Humphrey (Jr.)
G - Gabe Moton (So.)
F - Ryan Anderson (Fr.)
C - Kyle Caudill (Fr.)
Whether Jackson stays or goes doesn't even seem to be the most pressing issue on next year's roster when you look at all the potential new faces in the starting five. If Jackson comes back, Donahue still will give a lot of minutes to 1-2 freshmen and a transfer. If Jackson goes, it could be as many as 3 freshman starters and Humphrey.
Thoughts on next year's roster?
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PF
I don’t think it’s much of an “or” between Anderson and Clifford. Anderson was just named Gatorade’s Player of the Year for California. He’s clearly the most highly regarded guy in the class and I think something drastic would have to happen for him not to start. If there’s an “or,” I think it’s Caudill or Clifford at the 5.
Good point.
Though I would say that Donahue doesn’t seem to buy into the hype coming out of high school. I mean, this is a coach that gave significant PT to two walk-ons this year. He could surprise in naming the starting five next season.
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by Brian Favat on Mar 22, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Well...
We really didn’t have anyone with hype coming out of high school this year, so I don’t think we have a data set for that.
Have to agree Anderson is definitely penciled in at the 4. I think Clifford is probably “better” than Caudill, but may come off the bench because he’ll be backing up both the 4 and 5.
Reggie's not going to the NBA this year
Noway is Reggie going to the NBA this year. He’s not listed on nbadraft.net for the 2011 draft. He is listed for the 2012 draft. Just because the NC State coach thought that he looked like a pro player doesn’t mean that he’s gonna split this year.
Reggie seems like a smart guy, and I’m sure that he wants to come back for his senior year and get his degree.
Not sure how I feel about next season. Will we make it to the Big Dance? That’s all I care about right now.
Highly doubt we make the NCAA Tournament next year.
As for Reggie, sure it seems like the best move for him to stay for his senior year. But I wouldn’t blame him if he jumped. Get ready to get double and triple teamed all next season.
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by Brian Favat on Mar 22, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Dancing
So best case scenario is that 2 freshman out of 6 contribute immediately. So that leaves gabe moton and dallas elmore to fill the shoes of trapani, raji, biko and cahill. IMO gabe moton is a one way player (defensively), his ball handling is atrocious, his shot selection is suspect and he is undersized. Dallas elmore is another one way player- but hustles, so he can get some more minutes in a roster who desperately needs a 3. I doubt rubin cracks the lineup unless he goes through a massive transformation.
Our Starting Roster:
Reggie
Humphrey
Elmore
Anderson
Caudill
If the question is whether we dance next year, the answer has to be no. Donahue exceeded expectations with a 20 win season, this year. Our best case scenario is the same record, winning all the winnable games and falling in big fashion to the defensive elite in the ACC. If we can keep the blowouts to a minimum, maybe we have a better chance, but i dont think our losses to Harvard and Yale kept us out, but rather our lack of signature wins. Its tough to expect 2 brand new players and another short bench to come in and exceed the output of our departing seniors. Here’s hoping our center averages less than 1 travel a game.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think Donahue will start Elmore over Moton. Especially not with the playing time trend towards the end of the season.
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by Brian Favat on Mar 22, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
i agree
with the minutes reasoning, but i just dont think you can afford to start him, if we have no backup guards. Also getting smaller, not in our best interest. Then again Donahue and I aren’t always on the same page. I like defense, he does not.
Anyone know if humphrey can handle the ball?
The Oregon bloggers at Addicted to Quack (great blog name!) said that Humphrey can’t run point.
“Matt Humphrey has been a talented, but mind frustratingly inconsistent player during his two years with the Oregon Ducks. He is strictly a 2-guard. He’s not going to be able to run a point, and isn’t a bigger physical player that can run the 3.”
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Donahue's defensive philosophy
I don’t get why people are down on Donahue’s D. Yeah, our D sucked this year. In a related note, our entire roster was devoid of defensive talent/ability and was undersized and short-handed.
I think Donahue coached with what he had on D. Jury is still out for me.
good point
i remember doing a lot of grumbling about how awful our D was with the same exact players a year ago… I’m not sure about the statistics or if we actually did become much less efficient this season
We were slightly less efficient this year.
2011: 103.5 (199th best) AdjDE
2010: 95.8 (82nd)
It’s a great point though about inheriting a roster that sucked on D anyway. We’ll see what happens when Donahue makes a clean break with the Skinner leftovers.
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While I understand that Humphrey is “strictly a 2-guard” does that really matter in Donahue’s system? I mean I don’t think he particularly wanted to go with the three-guard lineup he ran so heavily this year but the personel dictated it. If he does go with it again whats to say Humphrey wouldn’t really be lining up at the three? Can anyone make the legitimate argument that, from a physical standpoint, Humphrey is less on an ACC-caliber three than John Cahill? As for the issue if Reggie goes (though there is less time the one-time exemption to throw your hat in the ring and pull out still exists, so there could be a panic-filled few days ahead for BC fans), I think Moton would get the start initially and let Daniels work his way into the lineup, I mean it is essentially just the two of them as ball handlers if Jackson leaves. If you though BC had issues with full court pressure under Skinner, just wait to see that lineup trying to do the job…
Starting 5
G-Reggie Jackson
G-Moton
G-Elmore or Humphrey(i dont know who to pick)
F-Anderson
C-Caudill
I dont see us being a great team or bad team. Ill say maybe 14-18 wins and 6-9 wins in the ACC even though it might be another “down” year for the ACC i cant see us Dancing but i can see the NIT back at Conte.
HAND DOWN MAN DOWN- MARK JACKSON
Hosting the NIT?
I don’t see us hosting an NIT game next season. We don’t even host the NIT when we are the higher seed! ;)
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
LOL
Well when you think of it i thought we were going to get 11W and we got 20. Ill take that any day of the week. Donahue will have an easier time because most of the players know the system already. One thing i like about Donahue is that he goes for the players that know his system unlike other ACC coaches who go for the best even if they have no idea how to play their way. btw i was going to do a season review and a preview of next year but no point now.
HAND DOWN MAN DOWN- MARK JACKSON
by TheSpecialOne on Mar 22, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I predicted 18 regular season wins this year, which, at the time, seemed very optimistic. We finished with 19.
Next year, I don’t have a great feeling. I like Donahue and the direction of the program but it will be very tough I think to match this year’s results.
Any season reviews / previews are always welcome.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
this year's seniors
I remember when all of the guys from this year’s class came in (Biko, Raji, Sanders, Southern, Dunn, and the transfer of Trap), and at the time I thought it could be nothing but a positive… that they would play two years with Tyrese Rice and then be ready to run show as juniors and it just never happened. To me that was Skinner’s biggest flaw, not only did he essentially stop recruiting after Reggie, the guys that he had did not develop their games at all. For example, we didn’t learn Biko could shot the three until the Don showed up, after he went three years doing almost nothing for our offense.
I don’t expect a lot for next season at all (I think reggie will stay and get tripled teamed every time he touches the ball), but I am really hoping that Donahue will begin to build a legacy of developing the talent he brings in rather than the stagnant state things were going in Skinner’s last few years. I don’t think that its impossible for BC to become one of the upper echelon teams in the ACC, at least not for basketball, but that possibility will stem directly from Donahue’s ability to develop large classes like the one we’re getting next year.
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