Future ACC Basketball Outlook: Will Donahue Ever Breakthrough In The ACC?
by Brian Favat on Feb 17, 2011 7:37 AM EST
in Boston College Basketball
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PrintDuring BC basketball's first season in the ACC, led by a roster of three future NBAers, the Eagles won 11 regular season games and came within a bucket of upsetting Duke for the ACC Championship. Ever since that inaugural ACC season of 2005-06, the general trend line for the Eagles has been negative -- both in terms of total conference wins and general fan excitement about the program.
Number of conference wins for BC since joining the conference: 11, 10, 4, 9, 6, 8 (the last number, a 2010-11 kenpom-approved projection). Once ranked in the top half of the conference in terms of number of ACC wins, BC has now fallen behind programs like Maryland, Florida State, Clemson and Virginia Tech in overall post-expansion conference winning percentage.
Superfans and alumni have responded at the gate, too. The average Conte Forum crowd size has declined in every season since we joined the ACC. These negative trends were a big reason why Al Skinner is no longer gainfully employed by the school.
Now in its sixth year post-expansion, it seems like the post-expansion ACC is separating itself into two distinct groups.
Top-shelf liquors: Duke, North Carolina, Maryland, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Clemson
$1.50 Busch Light drafts at MA's: Boston College, Virginia, Wake Forest, Miami, N.C. State and Georgia Tech
The two groups can be distinguished by two very strongly correlated characteristics: consistent winning in the ACC and head coaching stability.
Take a look at the below charts. Of the ACC's "top-shelf," only one program -- Clemson -- has made a coaching change since the ACC expanded to 12 teams. The other five programs have all had the same coach for the last six years, and two of those coaches -- Mike Krzyzewski and Gary Williams -- have been at their current posts for 20+ years.
Contrast this with the "Busch Light" division, where two of the bottom six programs have already gone through two post-expansion coaching changes. A third, N.C. State, likely will be parting ways with its current coach at the end of the season. Finally, the other two non-BC programs in this group -- Georgia Tech and Miami -- probably wish the school would part ways with their current coaches. Probably not as much at Miami, where annual basketball expectations aren't that high, but certainly at Georgia Tech -- a program that has two Final Four appearances in its history and finished as the National runner-up not 10 years ago (2004).
Click charts to embiggen (this season's win totals as projected by kenpom).
So my very long-winded set-up leads to today's discussion question: will Steve Donahue ever breakthrough in the ACC, and get BC back into the upper tiers of the conference?
Everyone who plays or watches BC play comes away thinking that this year's Boston College team is a well-coached one. But there are plenty of question marks about the Eagles' defense, and there will be a serious talent drain when we lose Trapani, Raji, Paris, Southern, and Dunn next season.
So what do you think? What's the long-term forecast for BC basketball? In Donahue you trust? Or is BC destined to be a middle-of-the-pack ACC hoops outfit for the next several seasons?
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It's a little early for this...
Considering Donahue is not even through his first year…maybe wait until he has a full recruiting class to judge whether he’ll have any success…
On the other hand, if you’re expecting him to make this team a perennial top 4 institution with the occasional ACC Championship, I think you’ll go wanting. We simply have not historically recruited the talent to consistently be at the top level. We may have the occasional year where we can make the top 4, and of those occasional years we might get lucky and win the ACC Tournament once or twice, but it’s unlikely we’ll be a consistent fixture.
Temperature check
This isn’t meant to judge the Don. Just wanted to gauge what the future expectations are.
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by Brian Favat on Feb 17, 2011 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
Forecast: It's Gonna Rain
Rain 3’s or Rain as in gloomy forecast?
I agree its a little early to predict whether Donahue will break through, but if our expectations are to compete amongst the UNCs and Duke’s for the ACC title, we are doomed for failure. Even with our most talented teams (be reminded these were all diamonds in the rough recruits) we couldn’t win the ACC.
Next season I expect quite a drop off with the departure of Raji and Trapani, two huge contributors. We saw what happened when teams focused on Reggie, and we can expect a heavy dose of that next year. Teams will have the scouting report on donahue- relies on 3 ball and poor defense, i dont think we can expect anything but middle of the pack ACC finishes for the next 3 years. Maybe come year 4 we’ll see how his recruits develop and mature in an ACC environment.
Wow this is offbase.
First, your fundamental “dividing line” is completely arbitrary and misleading. Since we joined the ACC, here is how the teams stack up:
(Distant) Top Tier:
Duke, 70 wins
UNC, 64 wins
Second Tier:
FSU, 51 wins
MD, 51 wins
Third Tier:
Clemson, 48 wins
VTech, 47 wins
BC, 46 wins
(Distant) Fourth Tier:
Wake, 36 wins
UVA, 35 wins
Miami, 34 wins
NC ST, 33 wins
GTech, 31 wins
BC is TEN (10!) wins clear of any other team you grouped them in with in your post. Sort of seems like you were just trolling for traffic when you decided to lump them in with the (Distant) Fourth Tier teams.
Second, EagleDave is right, Donahue just got here. “Will he ever break through?” makes it sound like he is TOB after ten years. He isn’t. Hell, he could still win the ACC tournament in his first season (odds are against it, but still…).
Third your point about downward trend is the whole reason Skinner was fired! But that trend is really only a very recent one. Through our first four full years in the ACC, BC was third in conference wins behind the big two. That doesn’t smack of can’t compete.
Coach D deserves time to bring in his own guys and actually run his system with the right talent in place. I do not accept Raj’s assumption of three more years of mediocrity, though I do agree next year will be a challenge.
Really, that should probably just be three tiers.
Looking at ti, the Second and Third tiers should probably be combined into one second tier.
Top Tier:
Duke, 70 wins
UNC, 64 wins
Second Tier:
FSU, 51 wins
MD, 51 wins
Clemson, 48 wins
VTech, 47 wins
BC, 46 wins
Third Tier:
Wake, 36 wins
UVA, 35 wins
Miami, 34 wins
NC ST, 33 wins
GTech, 31 wins
Doing it this way give three clear strata, with either five or six wins separating all teams in each.
CSOM_97 — I appreciate your thoughts, but do take offense to the notion that I’m somehow “trolling” for traffic. I put a lot of time into this post in particular and the blog in general, and it’s never been my M.O. to stir the pot by taking a ridiculous POV and taking it to the extreme.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
Apologies
If I caused offense, then I do apologize. I thoroughly enjoy your blog and work and very much hope you keep it going, disagreement with this particular post notwithstanding.
No worries
I think your three tiers are also spot on. The thought behind two tiers is that everyone knows Duke and UNC are a cut above everyone else, so why even bother with the distinction?
Of your second tier, BC is clearly ranked last of the middle tier. And unlike programs like Florida State and Maryland, whose ACC winning trend is generally positive, and unlike Clemson and VT, who have been pretty flat, the BC trend line has been slightly negative.
The top 6 / bottom 6 is certainly arbitrary, and BC is definitely at the top of the heap of the bottom tier, but I’d argue the difference between a BC and, say, a Virginia or Wake Forest isn’t all that great. All three programs have had really good years in the ACC, but UVa and Wake’s success has been disrupted more than BC’s given two coaching changes in the first five+ years post-expansion.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
Great question
We played in the hoops championship game first, but we’ve played in the football championship game more times.
At this point, I think football has to be a 3-2 favorite just because they are pretty good right now and the hoops team looks likely to need another couple of years to rebuild/retool for Coach D’s system.
Definitely a great question
I was going to post this question as a poll as a follow up to this post. Great minds …
Anyway, I actually think a ACC basketball championship is more likely, particularly under Donahue. BC could easily catch fire and win four games in four days to win the tournament (think: 10 seed N.C. State making it all the way to the Championship a few years ago).
Football is much harder to win, considering only 1/6 of the conference gets a shot at the title. All 12 teams have a shot at the hoops Championship every year.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
Bingo
'11: Minimum Goal: 9-3 Regular Season. Given FSU's non-con slate, don't care who the 9 are.
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 8th in offense, 88th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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For some reason...
I think football is more likely. A 10 seed going all the way to the title game is a very rare. Most of the teams in the championship are solid teams usually upper half of the league. Catching fire and beating 3 or 4 straight isn’t that likely (I do think Donahue will get us to a top half of the league with time).
In football you can go 5-3 and get a shot at the title some years. Doing that and winning 1 game for it all I think is more likely…although BC has broken my hearts in these types of games…
I think the odds slightly favor the basketball team, though neither one is much of a threat to win the ACC right now. In basketball, when you have a conference tournament waiting for you, all it takes is one good weekend. This particular BC team can get very hot or very cold at any given time, and as we’ve seen numerous times over the years, teams that were not expected to do so have made deep runs in conference tournaments, for whatever reason. The only problem is having to go through Duke or UNC.
In football, the regular season determines which two and only two teams have a chance at the title, and any one loss could potentially screw you. Sure, any one loss could hurt you in basketball, but in March, you’re always going to get that second chance to make a run. ACC football might not have the elite teams like basketball, but you also have to ask yourself if this BC football team has what it takes to run through their ACC schedule AND win a title game. A lot of things would have to break their way, and they’d have to be a top team, which they are currently not.
Soaring to Glory: A slightly relevant BC blog
Edge to Bball
I think Donahue will have a very good team once his recruits get to BC. Were getting a top 70 PF player from Cal and another big man to help inside, and if Reggie stays which IMO he wont we can have a year like this year.
As for football i hope Chase Rettig doesnt turn into an uncle Dave because if he does its gonna be a long year for BC football. But since our D is great, one good year with a QB like a juinor year Matt Ryan we can be a contender but theyll still be the FSUs Miamis and Virginia Techs in the ACC same with basketball but in basketball if we shoot well we can win easily.
you should still make that a poll question
even though it seems much easier to do in basketball, i still think it will happen it football first… what has plagued basketball for years now is the total lack of consistency following big wins (eg. ruin UNC’s undefeated season then lose the next game to harvard)
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