How Down Is ACC Basketball This Year? And The Big Finish
by Brian Favat on Dec 10, 2011 10:38 AM EST
in Big Finish
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PrintBrian: With the Boston College football season now behind us, many are starting to pay attention to college basketball. Or maybe after looking at BC’s 2-7 record, you’re conveniently skipping this season (either way). But over the course of the season you may hear announcers and pundits saying that the ACC conference is down this year in hoops. So just how far down is the conference as a whole?
Clearly losing this year’s Big Ten / ACC Challenge 8-4 didn’t help the national perception of the conference. Neither does early season losses to the ACC bluebloods Duke (63-85 at Ohio State) and North Carolina (80-90 vs. UNLV and 72-73 at Kentucky). And of course BC hasn’t done anything to give the conference a boost this year.
Here is the ACC’s performance data as told by Ken Pomeroy's ratings, including some early season losses.
| Rank | Team | W-L | Early Season Losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | North Carolina | 7-2 | UNLV (24), at Kentucky (2) |
| 8 | Duke | 8-1 | at Ohio State (1) |
| 27 | Virginia | 8-1 | TCU (172) |
| 29 | Florida St. | 6-3 | Harvard (43), Connecticut (19), at Michigan State (12) |
| 51 | Virginia Tech | 6-3 | Syracuse (5), at Minnesota (46), Kansas St. (41) |
| 55 | Clemson | 4-3 | Charleston (109), Coastal Carolina (128), South Carolina (132) |
| 57 | Miami | 5-3 | at Mississippi (80), at Purdue (18), Memphis (21) |
| 62 | N.C. State | 5-3 | Vanderbilt (38), Indiana (15), at Stanford (14) |
| 75 | Georgia Tech | 5-4 | Saint Joseph’s (78), LSU (120), Northwestern (52) |
| 116 | Maryland | 5-3 | Alabama (17), Iona (34), Illinois (40) |
| 165 | Wake Forest | 6-3 | Dayton (70), Arizona State (112), Richmond (60) |
| 266 | Boston College | 2-7 | at Holy Cross (210), UMass (121), Saint Louis (23), New Mexico (36), Penn St. (161), Boston U. (151), at Providence (123) |
Not a pretty overall resume at all. So just how far down is the ACC this year? Is this the type of year where the conference can only realistically get 3-4 teams into the NCAA Tournament? Your thoughts?
Jeff: Often times there is an ACC team or two that enters the conference season undefeated. It is not always one of the top two teams that do it but it does happen regularly and Clemson accomplished the feat multiple times under Oliver Purnell. This season clearly no one will be undefeated when conference play begins. Add to that though, there are a lot of ACC teams that have losses to teams outside the top 100. Then there's BC, who already has 5 such losses. It is not pretty at all. If Boston College were sitting around or in the top 50 right now, the ACC wouldn't look so terrible. Maryland and Wake Forest would still be outside the top 100 but that would not be so unusual. The big problem is after Duke and UNC, there's no one else in the top 25 and a depressing mere 4 teams crack the top 50. It is going to be a rough year for the ACC come tournament selection time. This is a proud basketball conference that expects to get more than 4 teams into the dance every year.
Big Finish
Brian: Providence and coach Ed Cooley survived BC hoops on Thursday night. Rewind the clock. Would you rather have seen BC hire Cooley or Donahue?
Jeff: At the time I wanted Donahue more than Cooley. I'll reevaluate after next season.
Jeff: Winnable game Sunday for the BC hoops team. Do we go on a 3 game win streak before Harvard?
Brian: I want to say yes but have a feeling we might drop one of the next three.
Brian: Kansas fired Turner Gill and replaced him with ... Charlie Weis. Good move for the Jayhawks?
Jeff: Terrible move for the Jayhawks. They will not be relevant nationally.
Jeff: Pitt and Syracuse still won't arrive until 2014 despite all the Big East additions this week. Disappointed?
Brian: We'll see about that ...
Brian: Looks like U.C.L.A. AD Dan Guerrero's botched coaching search is finally over. Would you rather have seen BC keep Spaz for another year or go through a coaching search as well as U.C.L.A.'s has gone?
Jeff: I wanted Spaz out. But once the staff is decided on, I am going to find a way to spin it as a positive.
Jeff: Army/Navy today. Not so lopsided looking, who ya got?
Brian: Kinda like Army in this one. At least I think it'll be closer than Navy -7.
Brian: Last one. Heisman Trophy presentation tonight. Who should win, and who actually wins?
Jeff: RG3 wins. Andrew Luck should.
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Outside of the top-4 I don't see who has a decent chance of making it.
The Hokies absolutely have to beat Oklahoma State (for the 2nd time) and not drop any other ooc games.
Managing Editor of Run the Floor
by Michael Rogner on Dec 10, 2011 11:08 AM EST reply actions
The ACC will have 6 teams in
The top 4 are in good shape, and then I expect 2 of VT, NCSU, and Miami, with the possibility of all 3 getting in. I agree with the above poster that VT can’t afford to drop another OOC game (they also have a tough test in BYU) or else they’ll need something like an 11-5 conference mark and an ACCT game. Miami has a chance for a marquee victory tonight against WVU, but it’s not a must-win depending on how they play the rest of the year. Remember they get Reggie Johnson back in a couple weeks and him being out has killed their inside game. NC State has a marquee win over Texas and a chance for another one against Cuse. Again, that isn’t a must-win game for them though it wouldnt certainly be a huge victory.
Also, "If Boston College were sitting around or in the top 50 right now, the ACC wouldn’t look so terrible. Maryland and Wake Forest would still be outside the top 100 but that would not be so unusual. " is a ridiculous statement. Despite both having down years last year, Maryland and Wake have been far far better than BC the past 5 years and neither one has been anywhere close to outside the top 100 KenPom prior to last year. Just 2 years ago Wake was the final unbeaten team in the country and Maryland tied for the ACC regular season title. That was Skinner’s final year and BC was a bottom feeder.
Six teams in is awfully generous. It’ll be more like four. Five if we are lucky. Teams that play BC twice (NCSU, Miami, VT in particular) will get hit by the low RPI wins much the same way BC took a hit last year playing Wake Forest twice.
And that statement applies to this season only. No one disputes Maryland and Wake Forest have been good over the last five years. Though you also seem to be selling BC way too short. BC was a bottom feeder for one year (2009) and an above-average ACC program nearly every other year in the conference.
Editor, BC Interruption
yeah, the way the comment was worded made it sound like Wake and MD were perennial bottom feeders, which they’re not. this season certainly, they’re both pretty awful. as for the # of tournament teams, I guess we’ll see in march. Miami is playing very well right now against a WVU team that I think is gonna sneak up on a lot of people come Big East play.
Goes back to coaching
New coaches this year at Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Maryland and Miami. Second year coaches at BC, Clemson and Wake Forest. The ACC won’t be back until the conference stabilizes the HC situation.
It’s no accident that three of the top four programs right now are led by the three most tenured ACC head coaches — K (32nd season), Hamilton (10th) and Williams (9th).
Editor, BC Interruption
oh, agreed completely. and tony bennett and seth greenberg are next. its impossible to have a strong league with that young a coaching base. bc is proof that it takes time to build a winning program. bennett is finally starting to show that after a few rough years, and he’s got another great class coming in next year. but looking at the landscape of college athletics i still think the acc has a shot at 6. let’s break it down:
Big East (7): Cuse, Marquette, Pitt, UConn, Gtown, Lville, and probably 1 more from the pack (my money’s on WVU)
B1G (8): There are 9 schools here with a shot. Some will kill each other off in conference play, but let’s be generous and say 8 of the 12 league teams get in.
Big 12 (6): Missouri, Baylor, KU, KSt, Texas, TAMU
SEC (5): UK, Vandy, Florida, Miss St, Bama. Don’t tell me Ole Miss, it’s not happening.
Pac-12 (3): There are no locks in this conference. In contention are Cal, Stanford, Washington, Arizona, and maybe Oregon St. I’d bet they get no more than 3 bids.
25 mid-major auto bids
Looking closer at the mid-majors, the A-10 is probably a 4-bid league, with a lot of teams who could take the slots. The CAA is probably a 2-bid league.
The following teams would probably get at-large bids if they lost their conference tournaments:
Long Beach St.
Memphis
Cleveland St.
Iona
Creighton
Harvard
UNLV
Gonzaga
Let’s say half those teams lay an egg an lose their conference tournaments (Harvard doesnt even have a conference tournament to lose).
Under that scenario there would still be 6 bids left over for the ACC
Still seems optimistic IMO.
Also have to factor in a team like Penn State 2011 who could make a deep run in one of the Big Six conference tournaments and get in based on strength of late season tournament run.
Editor, BC Interruption
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