Future Forecast: Pain
by Brian Favat on Nov 4, 2011 12:59 PM EDT
in Boston College Football
Email
PrintPre-Snap Read's Paul Myerberg's last line in his recent post about 2011 BC football really stuck with me.
Hey, this is B.C. football in 2011. And if significant changes aren't made - from top to bottom - this'll be B.C. football in 2012, in 2013, in 2014...
If you didn't stumble into work today severely depressed and reeking of failure, then this quote will probably slap you across the face with the reality that Boston College football has the potential to get much, much worse before it gets better.
But I started to think specifically about BC's future football seasons and started to wonder, even IF significant changes are made this offseason, will it get any better? After taking a look at BC's future 2012 and 2013 schedules, I'm beginning to think that any road to recovery may take much longer than any of us anticipate.
Let's take a closer look at BC's future 2012 and 2013 schedules (Sagarin ratings and current record in parenthesis).
2012 Home Schedule
16. Clemson Tigers (8-1)
23. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1)
26. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-3)
41. Miami Hurricanes (4-4)
91. Maryland Terrapins (2-6)
93. Maine Black Bears (7-1)
116. Army Black Knights (3-5)
2012 Away Schedule
36. Florida St. Seminoles (6-3)
37. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2)
59. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3)
73. N.C. State Wolfpack (4-4)
94. Northwestern Wildcats (3-5)
There's a very real possibility that the Eagles will face five ranked opponents next season, including Notre Dame, Clemson and Virginia Tech at home, and Florida State and Georgia Tech on the road. Spaz or no Spaz and rebuilding BC, it's hard to come up with many wins on this schedule. No reason to believe BC will knock off a Northwestern team that it just lost to at home on the road against a much better coach. Home games against Clemson, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and Miami will likely be non-competitive, as will road contests in Tallahassee and Atlanta. Even I-AA Maine is 7-1 (5-0 CAA) and nearly knocked off Pitt this season and is probably no guarantee win.
Early 2012 forecast: 3-9 or 4-8.
2013 Home Schedule
36. Florida St. Seminoles (6-3)
37. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2)
59. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3)
62. Syracuse Orange (5-3)
73. N.C. State Wolfpack (4-4)
139. Stony Brook Seawolves (5-3)
2013 Away Schedule
16. Clemson Tigers (8-1)
21. USC Trojans (6-2)
23. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1)
40. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-3)
91. Maryland Terrapins (2-6)
116. Army Black Knights (3-5)
Again, there's no reason to think BC will be competitive with the likes of Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia Tech and North Carolina (barring the NCAA hammer that may rain blows upon the Heels' football program) in two years time. Then there's the road trip to the LA Coliseum against a USC team that doesn't seem to have lost a step despite recent NCAA sanctions against them.
The Eagles can be competitive with programs like Wake Forest, Syracuse, N.C. State and Maryland in two years time, but there's no guarantee of future success. Games against Army and Stonybrook appear to be the closest thing to wins on the 2013 schedule.
Early 2013 forecast: 4-8 or 5-7
After reviewing the 2012 and 2013 schedules, with guaranteed wins few and far between, it's clear to me that any rebuilding effort will be an uphill battle with a challenging schedule and ACC programs that have or will have surpassed BC on the ACC totem pole. This leads me to believe that if BC is to rebuild this program and start over, it's best to get the rebuilding out of the way early with a new coaching staff in 2012.
The other thing that is clear is that Syracuse and Pittsburgh can't join the ACC soon enough. The additions of Pittsburgh and Syracuse will likely disrupt the current ACC schedule and put one (or both) programs on BC's annual schedule. Without games against Duke or Virginia from the Coastal Division on the schedule over the next two seasons, the Orange and Panthers will be welcomed additions to BC's schedule over games against Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Miami.
This program is going to struggle with or without Spaz on the sidelines next season. Might as well rip off the Band-Aid and attempt to build some semblance of an offense and rebuild this program from the ground up ... sooner rather than later. Any delay in replacing Spaz and the current coaching staff will only prolong any road to recovery, particularly with a challenging 2012 and 2013 schedule.
18 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
With competent coaching, good schemes, and respectable recruiting, the turnaround doesn’t have to take as long. Not saying we’d be great next year either way, but with a better coach, BC may be more competitive, and if they’re more competitive, they can salvage some wins.
One thing I do know for certain is that our futility will continue under Spaz if he returns. BC football has cratered and there is absolutely zero reason to believe, based on what I’ve seen this year, that subsequent seasons will be any better. The guy has already proven that he’s not averse to throwing in the towel and is way in over his head.
Another year of Spaz would be a disaster off the field as well. Lots of alums I’ve heard from are ready to give up their tickets and cut off the Flynn Fund donations. Further, what good recruit is going to want to come here when we’ve got a bunch of empty seats and are playing terrible football, with no sign that BC Athletics is serious about improvement?
Soaring to Glory: On the #FireSpaz bandwagon before it was cool
the 2012 home schedule is excellent
Not a big fan of this post other than the factual scheduling part. Too doom and gloom. When is the yankee stadium game?
There is no way spaz makes it to 2012 after last night. That being said, if he’s gone i’ll buy season tickets. If he’s not then i won’t. I don’t think i’m alone on that, and the sooner gene gets that the better
by cwm2005 on Nov 4, 2011 1:35 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions 1 recs
The 2012 home schedule is awesome but challenging. Becomes much less awesome with Spaz on the sidelines.
There are enough strong programs on the sched over the next 2 years that make me believe Spaz can’t turn this thing around. I’d point to the offensive regression as an obvious example of this. Might as well cut our losses and start fresh next season. That’s the point of this post.
Editor, BC Interruption
agreed
With spaz at helm, we’re f*ed. But, w/out him we’ll have optimism, a sweet home schedule, and a more veteran squad w *maybe the reigning butkus (kuechly), a darkhorse heisman(montel) and a qb who doesn’t suck (no idea)
Good thing bball season is almost here- wait . . . Sh*t
by cwm2005 on Nov 4, 2011 3:58 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
If it makes you feel any better, with a new coach I think we can bowling both in 2012 and 2013. With Spaz, will be more of the same (2011 season).
Editor, BC Interruption
I disagree that we could get “much worse.” We will never lose to UMass (Lord, hear our prayer), and you can’t score LESS than we have this year. If anything, when Kuechly leaves and our defense wanes, I posit that we will score MORE because garbage time will start at the tail end of the first half.
This is literally the worst season imaginable. We can’t go up, but we can’t go down.
We can’t go up, but we can’t go down.
Disagree. I think we can continue to go down, especially if we swap out close losses to Duke, Wake Forest and Northwestern with more blowout losses to Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, USC and Miami.
We might score more points, but so will our opponents.
Editor, BC Interruption
Though BC’s last Sagarin rating (113, before the FSU loss) is only better than Army (116) and Stony Brook (139).
Maine is straight up owning us right now.
Editor, BC Interruption
there was a time
when we were all wondering if BC would ever make it over the hump to become a perennial BCS bowl bidder… fast forward three years: we are all wondering what the chances are that we can get back to being a bowl eligible team within a couple of years
Bright Side
As a Uconn fan, I think I only see 4 wins next year. Cuse (they are bad, and Uconn who is also a bad beat them) the haven’t been good in a long time. Northwestern (perennial Big Ten cellar), Army at home, Maine at home, and possibly Maryland…so maybe 5. But here is the problem…not much separates these teams from BC and a loss to Maine would devastate the program. You can’t lose to Maine. All in all, I see 4-5 wins, but you may go o-fer in conference play.
We don’t get Cuse next year unless they are in the ACC next season. Syracuse opted out of the 2011 and 2012 games of our long-term series.
Can guarantee we won’t go 0-for-ACC next season. Easy 2-3 wins out of Maryland, at Wake Forest, at N.C. State.
Editor, BC Interruption
No donations, no tickets purchased
Until Spaz goes
by suffolk eagle on Nov 6, 2011 11:11 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on BC Interruption
Related FanShots on BC Interruption
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
