Future Forecast: Pain

Pre-Snap Read's Paul Myerberg's last line in his recent post about 2011 BC football really stuck with me.

Hey, this is B.C. football in 2011. And if significant changes aren't made - from top to bottom - this'll be B.C. football in 2012, in 2013, in 2014...

If you didn't stumble into work today severely depressed and reeking of failure, then this quote will probably slap you across the face with the reality that Boston College football has the potential to get much, much worse before it gets better.

But I started to think specifically about BC's future football seasons and started to wonder, even IF significant changes are made this offseason, will it get any better? After taking a look at BC's future 2012 and 2013 schedules, I'm beginning to think that any road to recovery may take much longer than any of us anticipate.

Let's take a closer look at BC's future 2012 and 2013 schedules (Sagarin ratings and current record in parenthesis).

2012 Home Schedule

16. Clemson Tigers (8-1)
23. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1)
26. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-3)
41. Miami Hurricanes (4-4)
91. Maryland Terrapins (2-6)
93. Maine Black Bears (7-1)
116. Army Black Knights (3-5)

2012 Away Schedule

36. Florida St. Seminoles (6-3)
37. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2)
59. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3)
73. N.C. State Wolfpack (4-4)
94. Northwestern Wildcats (3-5) 

There's a very real possibility that the Eagles will face five ranked opponents next season, including Notre Dame, Clemson and Virginia Tech at home, and Florida State and Georgia Tech on the road. Spaz or no Spaz and rebuilding BC, it's hard to come up with many wins on this schedule. No reason to believe BC will knock off a Northwestern team that it just lost to at home on the road against a much better coach. Home games against Clemson, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and Miami will likely be non-competitive, as will road contests in Tallahassee and Atlanta. Even I-AA Maine is 7-1 (5-0 CAA) and nearly knocked off Pitt this season and is probably no guarantee win.

Early 2012 forecast: 3-9 or 4-8. 

2013 Home Schedule

36. Florida St. Seminoles (6-3)
37. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2)
59. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3)
62. Syracuse Orange (5-3)
73. N.C. State Wolfpack (4-4)
139. Stony Brook Seawolves (5-3)

2013 Away Schedule

16. Clemson Tigers (8-1)
21. USC Trojans (6-2)
23. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1)
40. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-3)
91. Maryland Terrapins (2-6)
116. Army Black Knights (3-5)

Again, there's no reason to think BC will be competitive with the likes of Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia Tech and North Carolina (barring the NCAA hammer that may rain blows upon the Heels' football program) in two years time. Then there's the road trip to the LA Coliseum against a USC team that doesn't seem to have lost a step despite recent NCAA sanctions against them. 

The Eagles can be competitive with programs like Wake Forest, Syracuse, N.C. State and Maryland in two years time, but there's no guarantee of future success. Games against Army and Stonybrook appear to be the closest thing to wins on the 2013 schedule.

Early 2013 forecast: 4-8 or 5-7 

 

After reviewing the 2012 and 2013 schedules, with guaranteed wins few and far between, it's clear to me that any rebuilding effort will be an uphill battle with a challenging schedule and ACC programs that have or will have surpassed BC on the ACC totem pole. This leads me to believe that if BC is to rebuild this program and start over, it's best to get the rebuilding out of the way early with a new coaching staff in 2012.

The other thing that is clear is that Syracuse and Pittsburgh can't join the ACC soon enough. The additions of Pittsburgh and Syracuse will likely disrupt the current ACC schedule and put one (or both) programs on BC's annual schedule. Without games against Duke or Virginia from the Coastal Division on the schedule over the next two seasons, the Orange and Panthers will be welcomed additions to BC's schedule over games against Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Miami. 

This program is going to struggle with or without Spaz on the sidelines next season. Might as well rip off the Band-Aid and attempt to build some semblance of an offense and rebuild this program from the ground up ... sooner rather than later. Any delay in replacing Spaz and the current coaching staff will only prolong any road to recovery, particularly with a challenging 2012 and 2013 schedule.

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