Evaluating O'Brien's Move To Raleigh And The Big Finish
by Brian Favat on Nov 11, 2011 12:00 PM EST
in Big Finish
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Brian: It's been nearly five seasons now since Tom O'Brien left the Heights for Raleigh, but things haven't exactly gone to plan for TOB with the lateral (?) move to N.C. State. TOB's track record with the 'Pack hasn't been all that good. Consider that TOB is:
-- 16-21 (.432) in ACC play since 2007, while BC is 21-17 (.550) over that same span
-- 8-17 (.320) against Atlantic Division teams, while BC is 14-10
-- 0-6 against Clemson and Virginia Tech, while BC is 4-6
-- 1-3 against Boston College and 0-2 in Chestnut Hill
And probably the most damning stat I can come up with ...
TOB is 0-12 against Atlantic Division teams on the road since hitting the road and heading south. Now that we are nearly five years removed from TOB moving on from BC, evaluate his performance at N.C. State. Was it the right move to leave BC when he did, and was N.C. State the right choice for TOB? Your thoughts?
Jeff: I think at the time, TOB leaving BC was a good move for him and there was no reason that anyone should have thought he would not be successful at NC State. NC State, at the time at least, was a better football program that got more national attention and went to higher profile bowl games. And certainly, TOB got a bigger paycheck with the move. Now, in hindsight, he would have won more games in Chestnut Hill. Many of the players that brought the Eagles success since his departure were there because of him. Now that there are no TOB players in the program, there is not much success. So he was certainly good at bringing in a solid foundation of players to build a team around. I think we both agreed at the time and still agree that TOB would have won fewer games than Jags in the two years following his departure, but it probably still would have been 18 wins between those two seasons at least which is better than he did at NC State.
Brian: So does TOB make it 1-13 in Atlantic Division road games at State, or will Spaz and the seniors send TOB home winless?
Jeff: No, I do think the Eagles win tomorrow more likely than not. NC State has had zero success in the past on the road under TOB and especially in Chestnut Hill. Also, this season, NC State seems to win only out of conference games against terrible teams and against pretty decent teams in conference. This is a game that the Wolfpack has a legit chance of winning on paper so I doubt they do. BC took advantage of Maryland two weeks ago and hopefully will do the same against NC State who has similarly little to play for.
Big Finish
Brian: Luke Kuechly is a semifinalist for both the Lott and Lombardi Trophies. Does he take home one of them?
Jeff: I don't think so. I think the tackles record will be dismissed by enough people knowing that BC's defense was out on the field for 59 out of 60 minutes in some games.
Jeff: Northeastern tonight and a televised BU game Sunday. How do the men do on the ice this weekend?
Brian: A weekend sweep of the Boston HEA schools, sending a reeling Boston U. team further down the conference standings early in the season.
Brian: With basketball right around the corner, here's the Herald's capsule on UMass and Harvard. What will BC's record be against those two teams this season?
Jeff: 2-0. Yes, I said it, 2-0. But 1-1 does sound more realistic.
Jeff: The Lady Eagles start the run at another final four in soccer Sunday hosting Marist. How far do they go in the tournament?
Brian: They have a much tougher draw in the NCAAs this year. I think they get to the Sweet 16 but fall to Stanford in Palo Alto.
Brian: The men's soccer team faces Duke in the ACC semifinals. Do the Eagles get it done tonight?
Jeff: Hope so, but don't think so.
Jeff: Will an undefeated go down this weekend?
Brian: Stanford obviously has a tough out this weekend in Oregon but I think the Cardinal gets it done. No undefeateds go down this weekend.
Brian: Last one. With Virginia Tech winning last night, what division will the eventual ACC champ come from? The Atlantic or the Coastal?
Jeff: I'll take the loser of the first game to win the rematch, just like in 2007 and 2008, so Virginia Tech over Clemson.
Pick 5
Jeff:
Pittsburgh (+3) at Louisville
TCU (+15) at Boise State
Auburn (+13) at Georgia
Oregon (+3.5) at Stanford
Alabama (-18) at Mississippi State
Brian:
Texas (-1.5) at Missouri
N.C. State at Boston College (+2.5)
Notre Dame (-20.5) vs. Maryland
TCU at Boise State (-15)
Tennessee at Arkansas (-14)
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One of Pack Fan’s main complaints about TOB is what a horrible job he has done recruiting. His best players (Nate Irving, Russel Wilson) were not his recruits. The weird thing is though, that considering his horrible record against the Atlantic, he has dominated the Coastal division, and has won a road game at all of those schools, except VT.
I think the general feeling is that road record against the AD has to give soon. Last year TOB had two perfect opportunities against a down Clemson team and an upstart Maryland team in which they led in both games. Winning the MD game would’ve put the Pack in the championship game.
I’d like to say with a bowl bid on the line, warm seat rumors, and the fact that he’s never won yet agst BC on the Road, the Pack will be ready for this game, but you guys are right…this is a classic TOB game where he should win but he just can’t
11-4 against the Coastal…granted the 5 wins against UNC help that out a bit, but it’s not like those Heel teams were scrubs, a couple of those UNC wins came while the Heels were ranked. He’s had wins at every stadium in the coastal except for VT, that’s rather dominant
by packcanesteel on Nov 11, 2011 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
Dominant?
Hardly. That record is fools’ gold. BC fans are well aware that O’Brien coaches out of his mind in rivalry games, and that if he coached every game like a rivalry game, he’d be another Nick Saban of our generation.
11-4 breaks down as follows:
Take away the five North Carolina wins … 6-4
Take away a win over Duke … 5-4
Take away two wins over Virginia … 3-4
Take away two wins over Miami (back in 2007-8 when everyone was beating the U) … 1-4
And you are left with a win over Georgia Tech last season, a loss to GT this year, 0-2 against Virginia Tech and a loss to Duke.
Not very dominant at all.
Editor, BC Interruption
Also, TOB’s 11-4 record against the Coastal is propped up by a 6-0 record in 2007 and 2008.
Just 5-4 in last three seasons, including a loss to Duke.
Editor, BC Interruption
Agree with packcanesteel
Dominant might be a little strong of a word but they’ve been pretty darn good against the coastal.
by Jeff Martyn on Nov 11, 2011 11:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Schedule
BC would be pretty good against the Coastal too if we played that schedule.
Editor, BC Interruption
Nobody said NCST has been better than BC over this span
by Jeff Martyn on Nov 12, 2011 1:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Again, many of those UNC teams were ranked and loaded with talent, I don’t know why you want to discredit those wins b/c of TOB’s ability to coach against a rival, seems like that would be a pro in his book. I’ll agree with the Duke win, but one of the UVA wins was against a ranked UVA team and UVA isn’t a breeze this year. GT won the conference a year ago and were dominated at home last year by the Pack. The U is the U and they were a competive team even in that stretch, not a contender, but a bowl team.
by packcanesteel on Nov 12, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
Point is moot though because TOB sucks against the Atlantic, which is what matters more.
Editor, BC Interruption
I’m not discrediting the wins against North Carolina. 11-4 looks good on paper. I’m just disputing the “dominant” label on TOB’s Coastal record. When you only play Virginia Tech twice, go 0-2 and get blown out in one of those years … TOB could have gone 13-2 against the Coastal and I still wouldn’t call it dominant.
“Dominating” three teams in the division (UNC, UVa, Miami), splitting with Georgia Tech and Duke and going 0-2 against the best program in the conference since 2005 doesn’t equal dominant imo.
Editor, BC Interruption
by Brian Favat on Nov 12, 2011 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
He’s had wins at every stadium in the coastal except for VT
Counterbalanced by wins at zero stadiums in the Atlantic.
Editor, BC Interruption
I’d like to say with a bowl bid on the line
No bowl invites getting handed out after this game. Pack has to get to 7 wins.
Editor, BC Interruption
correct
State needs 2 of the however, State has Clemson next and hasn’t beat them in at least 7 years, and the Tigers look to be on a roll. State can’t afford to drop this one with Clemson looming…Maryland is Sr. day, another winnable game so most Pack fans are thinking BC and UMD are best bets to pick up those two needed to get to 7
by packcanesteel on Nov 11, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
TOB Recruiting
I think TOB hasn’t been able to recruit because his sales pitch doesn’t translate at State. No offense, but the recruiting pitch he gave while at BC doesn’t work at N.C. State … and you can’t teach an old dog new tricks.
TOB would have been a much better fit at North Carolina. As it stands though, he’s brought nothing but mediocrity to NCSU and probably only has another year or so left there before given the boot / retirement.
Editor, BC Interruption
Agree and Disagree
I think TOB was able to get some studs up at BC because of the stellar private school education BC has going for it. His no nonsense approach seems to be a turnoff to recruits in this area. Evidence of quite a few skill players leaving via transfer shortly after TOB came aboard. This could’ve been due to the lack of character guys Amato recruited as well though.
I don’t see how he’d be a better fit at UNC. They’re blind eye so to speak was a magnet to several high profile guys who were looking to coast while preparing for the NFL.
Injuries have killed this team in 09 and have hurt the defense this year. I think if TOB can squeak out a bowl and rebound next year and be a little more competitive, maybe he’ll have a solid base and be able to get more solid recruits in.
by packcanesteel on Nov 11, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly. How is that Catholic school Midwest pipeline out of Cincinnati working for TOB these days? It was the combination of BC’s strong academics and private (Catholic) school ties that helped TOB recruit successfully at BC.
Frankly, State has neither of those selling points. At least at North Carolina, TOB could have just adjusted the sales pitch slightly and still pushed forward with the academic angle.
North Carolina was also a much bigger rebuilding job than N.C. State at the time, which would have been more similar to TOB’s experience building the BC program after he took over in 2007.
Editor, BC Interruption
Tomm O"Brian & NCSU
Hi BC folks,
I read the evaluation of TOB at NCSU. Although I think most Wolfpack fans expected more, I do not hear the grumbling one would expect. TOB is 5-0 v UNC. I think it is hard to explain to people living in Boston just how big that stat is. He could go 1-11 and as long as he beat UNC, he stays. Years ago, Mike Cain coached State and was a pretty good coach. State was the first of the old ACC teams to beat Fl St U. I saw NCSU lose to UNC when St was a ten point favorite and at the end of the game, two words, “He’s gone!” A week later…Gone.
So I do not completely disagree with the critique of TOB. The guy is 5-0 v UNC and down hear….That is GOLD!!!.
The university communities are geographically so close that it is hard to discribe the culture without living in it. I grew up in Queens and move to Raleigh in the spring of 82. I was working in an office on a Thursday in March trying to call some people in other offices to get a project out the door. My colleagues started laughing at me….. They said, "It is ACC tourney time, It is a state holiday. Relax, Enjoy.
The college rivalry down here is “The Culture”…There isn’t anything else but the college rivalry.
When you have a horse that beats their horse….You ride it til it goes to the glue factory.
TOB isn’t going anywhere as long as he beats UNC…TRUST ME!!!!
Have a great game and a good time. Be safe.
G. Opack…
This is a known strength of TOB. I called it last week since it was one of the few consistent things aspects of TOB’s career at BC (though it was vs. ND).
Mustn't be afraid to dream a big bigger, darling
“I think it is hard to explain to people living in Boston just how big that stat is. He could go 1-11 and as long as he beat UNC, he stays.”
No, it’s not hard to explain at all. TOB owned Notre Dame while he was here. Then he’d lose a game the following week to a team BC had no business losing to. This isn’t a new phenomenon.
Sorry, but Yow would be foolish to keep TOB around just because he beats Carolina, because State has done little to nothing else in the ACC except beat UNC. State has too many resources (enrollment, facilities) to be a bottom tier ACC football program that is measured only by beating UNC.
Editor, BC Interruption
ATLeagle's lock of the week
I am having a terrible season but I will still finish with a better record than Spaz. I like Oregon getting 3.5 tonight at Stanford.
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