Can Boston College Win Out 2010 Style?

WARNING: This post is way too optimistic for Brian or A.J. to approve.

Instead of talking about GDF or Spaz, let's take a look at what the players on the field can still hope to accomplish the remainder of the season.

Sitting at 1-5, Boston College needs to win out in order to finish with the 7-5 record that they attained last season. In order to make a bowl of course, they need to win five of six. Heading into the season, we knew with certainty that the second half of our schedule was going to be brutal compared to the first half of our schedule.

But at 1-5, our success rate really can't get any worse, and many teams are not performing the way I, or many people, thought they would. Three of our remaining opponents started the season ranked and all six got consideration, meaning got votes, in the preseason AP poll.  Now only Virginia Tech is ranked and only Notre Dame is getting votes in the latest AP Poll. That is the same as the front half of our schedule where Clemson is the one ranked team and one other team, Wake Forest, is getting votes.  

Off the top of my head, from what we've seen out of our team so far and what we've seen out of our remaining opponents, I'd give BC a 1 in 100 chance of winning out.  No one on our remaining schedule has beaten a good team so far this year.  This best win by far of our remaining opponents is Notre Dame's home victory over Michigan State. Michigan State is still a mystery though and we'll find out if they're any good in the next three weeks when they play Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Our remaining ACC are a pathetic 2-8 in conference so far with both of those wins coming in home games against Miami. None of our remaining ACC opponents have a victory over a single FBS team with a winning record.  So for people who think that BC might finish 1-11 or 2-10, I just don't see it happening because the remaining competition is too bad to allow us to do so.

Let's quickly break things down game by game.

 

at Virginia Tech -- 25% chance of W.  This will be my most criticized probability.  Virginia Tech is ranked now but has not proven anything.  They were beat by Clemson at home by essentially the same margin BC lost to Clemson by on the road.  BC will be coming off a by week so the defense can rest up and Andre Williams can get back in the lineup.

at Maryland -- 49% chance of W. Maryland might be the biggest disappointment in the ACC so far.  The victory over Miami looks not impressive now and they have that extremely embarrassing 31 point home loss to Temple.  BC would be favored if this game were at home.

Florida State -- 35% chance of W.  Once #5 in the nation now would have to win out to get back into the top 25.  BC and FSU played Wake similarly.  FSU is the better team in this matchup but with the way BC's season is going, this Thursday night game is going to be this team's version of a bowl game and will put forth their best effort.  Also, if FSU piles up any more losses between now and then the team might have a real tough time regrouping.

N.C. State -- 85% chance of W. If we had played N.C. State's schedule BC would be 3-3 or better also.  NC State scored the final two TDs of the game against both Wake Forest and Georgia Tech and still lost both by 2 scores.  Also, the home team in this matchup has had a huge advantage the last few seasons.

at Notre Dame -- 15% chance of W.  This is the toughest test on the Eagles' remaining schedule.  But, you never count the Eagles out against the Irish no matter how bad their season is going.  

at Miami -- 42% chance of W.  This is another game that I think BC would be favored in if played in Chestnut Hill.  Miami is 0-2 in conference against teams that have failed to beat anyone else in the league, but at least Miami has wins over an FBS opponent to its credit unlike BC.  There won't be too many people interested in either program once this game rolls around and the weather won't be warm enough to hurt the Eagles so there is no home field advantage to speak of.

 

Now using my probabilities as fact, BC has exactly a 0.23% chance of winning out to finish 7-5 and a 1.53% chance of winning out their remaining ACC games.  It won't happen, but things aren't exactly all roses in Blacksburg, College Park, Tallahassee, Raleigh, South Bend and Coral Gables so there are chances for several Ws left on the schedule.

FYI, chances BC loses out = 1.84% and that is from the most optimistic of BC followers.

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