Football Outsiders Almanac Preview and the Big Finish
by Brian Favat on Jul 16, 2010 12:40 PM EDT
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PrintBrian: Football Outsiders Almanac recently released its 2010 college football preview. In the preview, you can find detailed win projections for all FBS teams, chapters for all BCS conferences and essays on the history of conference realignment and the relationship between quarterback success and recruiting rankings. They also used a new project formula this year that takes into account recent history, recruiting rankings, turnovers and several other factors.
Here’s how the guys at FO see the ACC playing out this year:
ACC Atlantic
- Clemson – 9-3 (6-2)
- Boston College – 9-3 (5-3)
- Florida State – 6-6 (5-3)
- Wake Forest – 6-6 (3-5)
- N.C. State – 4-8 (2-6)
- Maryland – 5-7 (2-6)
ACC Coastal
- Virginia Tech – 11-1 (7-1)
- Miami – 8-4 (5-3)
- North Carolina – 8-4 (5-3)
- Georgia Tech – 8-4 (5-3)
- Virginia – 5-7 (2-6)
- Duke – 3-9 (1-7)
In addition to projecting the final ACC standings, FO calculated mean win projections for each of the ACC teams. BC had a mean win projection of 8.9, right behind Clemson (9.0) and 2.5 wins clear of Florida State (6.4). In terms of this set of ACC projections, what most stands out to you?
Jeff: What is this!? Finally a realistic prediction for Florida State this season! I love it.
Brian: Nerds don't lie.
Jeff: Other than that I am surprised that N.C. State is not predicted to win more games and finish ahead of Wake Forest. Clearly, the Atlantic Division has no clear cut favorite to win and BC's games against Clemson and Florida State will be the most important of the season in terms of determining if the Eagles move on to Charlotte or not. On the Atlantic side, you really have three teams contending - BC, Clemson and FSU - and then three other teams. On the Coastal side, it's Virginia Tech, a battle for second between UNC, Miami and Georgia Tech, then Virginia and Duke. There is really no new news here. The thing that really stands out to me most is that if these predictions are ccorrect, TOB will be looking for a job at the end of this season.
Brian: In the Atlantic, we are seeing the widest range of predictions for Clemson this season, which is probably fair given that Kyle Parker's future as the Tigers starting quarterback is uncertain. You have Football Outsiders who is predicting that the Tigers will repeat as Atlantic Division champs, while other publications like Athlon and Phil Steele predict a second place finish for the Tigers. The Sporting News goes in the opposite direction, predicting a fourth place finish, and a losing record, for Clemson. There is much more consensus about the other five Atlantic Division teams and Clemson seems to be the biggest wildcard in the race this season.
Big Finish
Brian: ESPN College GameDay will expand to a three-hour format, starting at 9am ET this season AND the show will be simulcast on ESPN Radio. Pretty sweet, right?
Jeff: The more GameDay, the better.
Jeff: Will anything come of the NCAA investigations into UNC football?
Brian: I don't think so. Maybe this is a sign that the NCAA finally cares about ACC football.
Brian: BC recruit Dennis Clifford talked to Dime Mag, saying that Donahue’s Sweet 16 run with Cornell was a big reason why he committed to BC. How long do you think Donahue will be able to use his Sweet 16 run on the recruiting trail?
Jeff: I think Donahue can milk that for several years saying that he took an Ivy League school to the Sweet 16.
Jeff: Speaking of basketball, what would the capacity of Conte Forum have to be in order to sell out and pack the seats for every game this season? 1,500 seats?
Brian: Maybe BC should play in Harvard's Lavietes Pavilion this year (capacity 2,195). Donahue is used to winning there.
Brian: Donahue’s Cornell team attempted over 6 more 3-pointers and made 4.5 more than last year’s BC squad. Are you excited for a more fast-paced, bombs away style of BC basketball next season?
Jeff: I like Skinner's teams but there was nothing exciting about their style of play. It has to get better from a fan's perspective.
Jeff: Today, HD profiles Max Holloway, noting that he's kin to a former Bruins great. Sounds like something you'd care about. Do you?
Brian: Not particularly, unless Max is also going to lace them up and play on York's checking line.
Brian: Last one, Maryland and Texas are in discussions to play each other in football. What one big-name program not currently on the future schedule would you most like to see the Eagles play?
Jeff: One of the big SEC schools. But not Florida ... they might be in trouble by the time we play them like USC is now.
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FO's Florida State Projection
Personally, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to consider at Oklahoma, BYU and at Florida losses.
In the ACC, my guess is they have the ’Noles losing at Miami, Clemson and either BC or North Carolina.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
I.e. losable games include... OU BYU @MIA BC UNC and CLEM...that's 6...we're not losing all 6!
Giddy-up!
LOL BYU
The team FSU pulled its starters against when up by 34 points in Utah?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Well, maybe it was Samford then. I mean, the Noles struggled to put away Jacksonville State last year …
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
I love seeing you guys get all riled up when the preseason prognosticators “disrespect” the Noles, to the point where you bet me $50 that FSU is going to beat the I-AA cupcake on the schedule.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
by Brian Favat on Jul 17, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
and BYU...you brought up the BYU game Im just saying if its realistic lets take it to the matt.
: ) I do get riled up… i can handle reality checks 7-6 I would disagree with and still respect the analysis…6-6 is a joke, I would say the same thing (although with less venom) if someone made a lame prediction about another team as well.
Giddy-up!
Tc... 7-6 would include a bowl game, for which they won't project an outcome because they don't know who we would play
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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What?!?
No way we lose to BYU. Period. This team was waxed in their home stadium last year. Not even close. Now they lose their all star QB, All conference TE, and starting RB and they are supposed to somehow be better? This is the only team last year our defense actually dominated. They are going to wilt in the Florida humidity in the second half. This game is going to get ugly for BYU real fast. We might pull Ponder early, but since he’s in the Heisman race we may keep him in to pad his stats.
We don’t play at UF this year. They come to Tallahassee. They don’t have Tebow and Brantley is still a mystery. Everyone looks good wearing the no-contact jersey in practice. UF gave up a lot of sacks last year. Tebow was built to take the punishment. Can Brantley say the same? By the time this game comes around, our defense should be very familiar with the new zone schemes Stoops is implementing. This is our best chance to knock these guys off their high horse.
@OU is the real test early on. It will also be a chance to show what we have against a top ranked team. We may even be underdogs, but I am looking forward to the matchup.8-4, 9-3 are more realistic projections. 6-6 is a joke.
Even be underdogs @ ou?
Try double-digit underdogs
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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we will not re-argue this point.
I’ll admit that we’ll be underdogs going into this game. Just the way I like it. Double digit underdogs is even better.
I’m not privy to the recent FSU-UF history, but just because Tebow won’t be there doesn’t exactly mean the cupboard is bare in Gainesville.
Your argument as to why BYU is a guaranteed win based on last year’s result can work the other way, too. The Florida-FSU game wasn’t even close last year.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
not true. explain how my argument works the other way.
in our game against BYU this year, they will be coming in at an obvious position of weakness having lost so much talent from their offense (not to mention the defensive losses they’ll have to replace). In the case of Florida, they too will be coming in less strong than a year ago. Not only is Tebow gone, but so are the top two receivers and 6 defensive starters. Now their “weakness” won’t be as apparent as BYU, but I’d much rather be facing this year’s UF team with what we have than that the team from last year.
Doc nobody is arguing UF won't take a step back
but we are nowhere close to being on the same field as them. 6-2 in the ACC is a reasonable goal. Beating UF this year is not. They are loaded to the gills with talent. Let’s try to keep it within 2 scores going into the 4th quarter.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I'm not predicting victory
I’m saying that this is our best chance in the last 7 years against these guys. Everything is lining up for a comeback. New QB for them. They’re on the road. We get them in the last game of a rebuilding year with a Senior Heisman QB and a possible Heisman trophy on the line. We might show that we DO belong on the same field with these guys. May not win, but then again…
Best chance like 1 on 4 not 1 in 20
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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i mean and let's not forget some bonehead decisions by some student athletes
Either way, i don’t see Clemson getting to 9 wins.
Can someone remind me why after losing Spiller they are still slated to finish 1st in the division? Wasn’t he like 50% of their offense, and they have QB questions?
We are going to have the FOA writers on the blog next week for Five Good Minutes. Will ask them about how they arrived at the FSU and Clemson predictions.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
by Brian Favat on Jul 17, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks! However...
you know the answer will be 5year history or something. There is little way to use math to project teams with this many outliers on one side of the ball, especially if you lean on historical data…MASS changes in everything these kids have been doing on Defense.
Giddy-up!
We still have to turn in our questions too
I talked with BF the other night. I think their ACC Atlantic predictions are probably the ones that worry them the most of the 6 divisions (SEC e/w, b12 n/s, acc a/c)
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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We’ll run with our FOA post on Tuesday. We asked questions about the three Atlantic Division contenders – BC, FSU and Clemson – and a bit about their methodology. Stay tuned.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
FSU's offense is hurt bigtime by the 5 year samples they use
They have the 2005 and 2006 seasons w/ Jeff Bowden lumped in there. They actually project our offense to decline this year, which I do think is absurd returning the whole OLine, Ponder, and 9 starters.
But their goal is to be as accurate as possible. And in doing so they cannot make non-numerical changes to the data to account for the loss of certain positions over others, coaching changes, etc.
I do think FSU will make the biggest single-year change in the history of FOA defense because I don’t think there has ever been such a disparity between defensive talent and defensive coaching.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 17, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree that FSU (particular, the defense) will improve and I don’t doubt that you will improve on last year’s 6-6 record. But to say that a 6-6 projected record is a joke I think is a bit much. You would have said the same thing to anyone that predicted a 6-6 record in July 2009, too.
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I actually predicted 7.3 last year, for which I got criticized heavily.
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2010/1/14/1251124/revisiting-our-2009-projections
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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And I do think a 6-6 record is a joke
Because of the ridiculous addition by subtraction FSU achieved, then the additions they acquired.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Both Jeff and I had Florida State at 8-4 (5-3) last year, finishing second behind Clemson.
http://www.bcinterruption.com/2009/09/fortune-teller-acc-atlantic-division.html
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
People overreacted to the 2008 Clemson debacle
CU had the most on-field talent and had the schedule to get it done. Case of ACC bloggers knowing more than the national media. I actually bet Clemson for the division.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Not to pat myself on the back, but don't mind if I do ...
Last year predicted 11 of 12 games right for BC. Only game I missed was the FSU game.
http://www.bcinterruption.com/2009/09/fortune-teller-predicting-season.html
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
That's a helluva run
I had Jax, BYU, NC State, GT, Maryland, UF, West Virginia, Clemson, Wake correct predicting the week before the game
Reg season I had 7 of 12, however, I think 7.3 is not an awful mark for the debacle and will take some credit for being by far the closest media outlet in terms of predicting the defensive collapse, thanks in large part to the stuff we saw in 2008 that wasn’t in the stat sheet and the stuff we heard just before the season.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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For instance... 52nd projected defense...
I honestly do not think it’s unrealistic to expect FSU to outperform its projection by 5-25 slots (between 27th to 47th, as opposed to 52nd projection), because of the many factors unique to the FSU program, and the talent level. Nor do I think the system should attempt to account for personal issues like the suicide of a defensive coordinator’s son and the practice time that member missed. Or fistfights between coaches. Or starting players on defense to spite offensive coaches. Or improved strength programs, etc. That would be a mess and impossible to check those issues for every team. Suffice to say, however, that other teams did not have this stuff going on.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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no one with half a brain and a CPU could argue we had at least top 50 talent on D last year...
finished 80-100th depending on the modle you’re using.
That is a GIANORMOUS gap in talent.
Jimbo could hire an average staff and still have a .025 bump in performance….provided they didn’t have a turf war with the rest of the staff, and run man cover 1 blitz 90% of our games, blitzing consistently at least 2 extra on 3and long for some mysterious reason.
Giddy-up!
You had defensive coaches missing practice due to suicide
Coaches fist fighting. A family friend who had never coached coaching a position. Only by doing so well for how long he did could a man have acquired the power to make moves like that.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Nor should there be. The formula should assume that stuff doesn't go on and that coaches are fired if it does
Mercifully, FSU’s fans woke up from their decade-long nightmare.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Here are my ACC projections
5.65 FSU
5.30 BC
4.70 CLEM
2.63 MD
2.33 NCST
2.13 WAKE
5.65 VT
5.53 MIA
5.05 UNC
5.08 GT
2.13 DUKE
1.85 UVA
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Wow, 32%
My poor Eagles only stand a 32% chance of beating FSU in Tallahassee? Seems to me we’ve had some luck there in recent years.
Much different this year.
I think FSU would take 6 of 10 on a neutral field. 2 of 3 in Tallahassee seems pretty reasonable to me.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 18, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Given how closely these teams have played each other
I’d say 32% is a far stretch. If BC gets off to a slow start in the year and comes in unranked and/or FSU beats up on Miami the week before, I could see FSU being favored by 5-7 points.
If it breaks the other way, BC could easily be favored at FSU, especially given that BC hasn’t lost at Tallahassee in….ever? I don’t know if BC has ever lost to FSU at Tally, actually.
Either way, I promise you the money line won’t be at +210 for BC for this game.
It's -7 in vegas right now
I expect it to be -8 or -9.
I’m not considering what BC will be ranked coming in. We know that ranking will be a joke because BC doesn’t play a non-conference schedule. You know it. I know it. Everyone knows it.
I don’t think it is at all unreasonable to say FSU takes this game 2 out of 3 times in Tally. Whether BC has ever lost at Tally is of no consequence IMO.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 18, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
We know that ranking will be a joke because BC doesn’t play a non-conference schedule. You know it. I know it. Everyone knows it.
Huh? If BC is 4-1 or 5-0 going into the FSU game we will have beaten either a Top 10 Virginia Tech team or a Notre Dame team ranked by many in the Top 25 preseason.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
Va Tech is an ACC team so that doesn't refute the "non-conference" argument
Very few have Notre Dame as a top 25 team. When is the last time Notre dame even made a bowl?
I’m not saying BC should change. They are really smart to do what they do. Writers are lazy and don’t realize who teams play (see Boise).
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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So we’re supposed to apologize for Notre Dame sucking it up of late? Same with Syracuse?
Those two programs are rival programs to BC, just like Florida-FSU. It is what it is. At present though, it benefits BC that those programs have taken a step backwards.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
I never asked you to apologize. I simply stayed your non-conference schedule is a joke. You took offense to that and defended by saying you can’t help it because they are rivals.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Notre Dame Preseason Rankings
Phil Steele: 16
Athlon: 26
FO: 34
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
So one of three?
Not impressed.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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BC’s non-conference schedule typically consists of 1-2 rivals or BCS peer schools (a la Notre Dame, Syracuse, Northwestern, Stanford, USC), 1 mid-tier FBS team from either the MAC or C-USA and an FCS school.
I don’t understand “Doesn’t play a non-conference schedule.” Isn’t that the type of schedule Jimbo aspires to for FSU in the future? We’re supposed to apologize for not scheduling schools like BYU, Oklahoma and Florida all in the same season? That type of scheduling is stupid, unless you are Florida State from the early 1990s, which you aren’t.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
It was stupid then as well
I never asked you to apologize. I think your schedule is smart. The teams you play are pretty much a joke. They are teams that a decent BCS conference team should beat even when it has an off day. This potential record for BC when it comes to FSU will be quite inflated by virtue of playing Weber State, Kent State, and (arguably) Notre Dame.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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This all goes back to Mike trumpeting BC's record going into Tally
Of which I said I was not impressed.
In the spreadsheet I linked I give BC a great chance to win the Atlantic. I really don’t think I am being grossly unfair here.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I just don’t understand the shot on BC’s non-conference sched.
BC can’t control the fact that two of their longtime rivals on the non-conference schedule – Notre Dame and Syracuse – are smack in the middle of some down years. For several years now, BC has scheduled a MAC team, and Weber State is a last-minute addition for BC’s I-AA game against Hofstra, who canned their football program last season.
For whatever reason, BC has the (fortunate?) luck of catching some quality non-conference competition on down cycles. See: Notre Dame (the entire last decade), Penn State (2003-04), BYU (2005-06). Looking like the same thing will happen with USC (2013-14) … coming off NCAA sanctions … and Stanford (2016-17) … who knows if Harbaugh is still there in 6 years or if he takes a better BCS job.
Is BC challenging themselves with three tough non-conference opponents like FSU this year? No. But at the same time, BC’s non-conference schedule isn’t nearly as atrocious as some Big 12 and SEC schools who try to schedule multiple I-AAs and terrible WAC and Sun Belt teams.
Basically, I’m arguing that while BC’s non-conference schedule looks soft on paper, I don’t think it’s due to a lack of trying to schedule tough opponents. And it’s not nearly as bad as the scheduling practices of other Big 12 / SEC / Big Ten schools.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
I agree with your argument that the schedule is not necessarily intentionally bad
But my argument is not one of intent.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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BC 2-1 all-time in Tallahassee ...
2-0 since joining the ACC. Last year was the first time the home team won in the series since joining the conference.
Only Eagles loss was a 41-7 beatdown on October 18, 1980.
BC Interruption, SBN's Boston College Eagles blog
BC OOC
As a long time BC fan, I am embarrassed by our OOC schedule. BC needs to take on tough opponents to prove the program’s worth on the national stage. Bring in the Texas’s, Ohio States, Alabama (well maybe not ’ Bama, that could get ugly) etc.
And frankly, given the way the bowls treat BC — rightly or wrongly — even if we got another L on the record it would not matter much for bowling purposes. We do play ND and USC a few times over the next few years, so we got some decent future OOC action, but not enough. Syracuse will suck as long as they are on the BE. and we will always have 2 chumpo games every year.
C’mon BC, take a chance. .. go for some more quality OOC games. Weber State (replacing a defunct Hofstra game), what a total embarrassment…!!!
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