ACC Tournament History Working Against The Eagles? and the Big Finish

Brian: On Thursday, D1scourse’s Patrick Stevens highlighted how 13-3 and 12-4 ACC teams have fared in the ACC Tournament. Going back to the 1992 ACC Tournament – when the league became 9 teams deep and first played a 16 game regular season - he found that 13-3 and 12-4 teams reached the ACC Tournament Championship game 50 percent of the time. Teams that finished 13-3 or 12-4 also won the Tournament 25% of the time. Certainly good news for Maryland.

That’s all well and good, but what about Boston College? With the win on Wednesday, BC can finish the regular season with a record of 7-9 or 6-10. How does that stack up with history?

Here’s a look at how ACC teams have fared in the ACC Tournament going into the tournament with either a 7-9 or 6-10 record.

7-6 (26) 6-10 (16)
1 ACC Champion 0
0 Runner-up 0
5 Semifinals 3
14 Quarterfinals 11
6 First Round 2

 

The lone bright spot on this table is the 2003-2004 Maryland Terrapins squad that went into the ACC Tournament with a 7-9 record and emerged as Tournament Champions.

It’s basically common knowledge at this point that BC has to either win the ACC Tournament or reach the championship game and get a LOT of help along the way to make the NCAA Tournament. History, it would seem, isn’t on the Eagles side in this one. Going back to 1992, teams that finished 7-9 or 6-10 have reached the ACC Championship Game only 2.4 percent of the time (1 of 42). The deck certainly seems stacked against BC.

So 2.4% chance to make the ACC Tournament Championship game for the Eagles? Higher or lower? Why?

Jeff: Considering all there was was an #8 vs. #9 play-in game prior to 2005, the data is certainly skewed.  

Brian: While the data may be skewed, it's skewed in the wrong direction for BC. Before 2005, there was only an #8 vs. #9 play-in game and that typically didn't involve teams that finished the season 7-9 or 6-10. So the vast majority of teams that finished 7-9 or 6-10 went out in their first game during the ACC Quarterfinals. 

Jeff: BC winning the tournament by winning 4 games in 4 days would be completely unprecedented. It would be incredible whether you are a BC fan or not. A team winning the conference tournament not in the top 4 seeds in the Big East, ACC and maybe even the Big 12 is huge news this year or any year.

Does that all mean BC can't do it? Absolutely not. The ACC might not get any #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament this year and probably won't have more than 2 teams receiving top 4 seeds (Duke and Maryland). BC might only have to face one of them en route to the ACC Championship so this year, the feat is more achievable than in past years. Combine that with a team that is playing its best basketball of the season - and was expected to be an ACC contender by many prior to the season - and you have a situation where you don't have to be a BC diehard fan to think the Eagles have a somewhat realistic chance of winning the tournament. Say 5 or 10%.

 

Big Finish

Brian: The combined 2009 winning percentage of BC football’s 2010 non-conference opponents is .458. That’s bad, but not as bad as the winning percentage of Virginia (.449), Wake Forest (.440) and Clemson’s (.347) non-conference opponents. Your thoughts?

Jeff: Our non-conference schedule goes as Notre Dame goes. If Notre Dame has a good season our schedule is fine and consistent with other BCS programs. If they don't go bowling again, it looks like we schedule cupcakes.

 

Jeff: Yesterday, the BC women got off to a good start in the ACC Tournament. Any chance the Eagles defeat the Seminoles tomorrow who went 12-2 in the regular season?

Brian: Considering the women lost to FSU on the road by 21 earlier this season, if they do, it'd be a heck of an upset.

 

Brian: Since it’s March ... CBS Sports announced that their March Madness on Demand’s ‘Boss button’ was clicked 2.77 million times last year. How many times did you end up clicking it?

Jeff: Zero. I have TVs at work and you're in school so it won't be us jacking up that number this year.

 

Jeff: Hockey East regular season title on the line this weekend when BC and UNH finish the regular season. Who’s your Hockey East regular season champ pick?

Brian: New Hampshire. They only need a point. We'll take the one that matters - the Hockey East Tournament championship.

 

Brian: Better in-game BC football tradition – the singing of "Sweet Caroline" or the "We are … BC!" cheer?

Jeff: Sweet Caroline has been going on a lot longer.

 

Jeff: Cam Atkinson has surfaced in INCH’s top 3 for their Hobey Baker Watch this week. Chances he takes home the hardware?

Brian: He's a significant underdog to Denver goalie Marc Cheverie. 20 percent.

 

Brian: Last one, last regular season men’s basketball of the season on Sunday. Pomeroy predicts a close loss, but I know you think otherwise. What’s the final score?

Jeff: I think it's another easy victory like the Virginia game where we never trail in the game or only briefly. Is that bold enough or do you still want a final score?

Brian: Nope. That'll do.

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