Big Ten Expansion to 16 Teams? Ripple Effects

From last Friday's Columbus Dispatch:

Reports say that the Big Ten, currently with 11 schools, is considering adding three or even five teams. Either plan would allow the conference to stage a football championship game, as the Big 12, Southeastern and Atlantic Coast conferences already do. And with teams as geographically diverse as Rutgers and Texas being mentioned for inclusion, expansion could radically alter the college sports landscape.

First, let me say that I just don't see radical Big Ten alignment - to the tune of 3 or 5 teams - happening any time soon. I remain unconvinced that a conference that has flirted with possible expansion three separate times and failed to pull the trigger would suddenly commit to something as radical as adding 3 or even 5 teams. Of course, 3 or 5 team Big Ten expansion would surely create a ripple effect that would be felt throughout college athletics.

Also, a 5 team Big Ten expansion must assuredly means the death of the Big East as a football conference. Something that West Virginia coach Bill Stewart has publicly stated is only a matter of time. The rest of college football would have to rally around the flaming wreckage of the once proud Big East football conference and pick up the pieces.

Let's assume for a moment that the Big Ten does go as radical as 5 team expansion, with a majority of those teams coming from the Big East.

A "Big Sixteen" might consist of:

East: Syracuse, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana
West: Ohio State, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, West Virginia

I've taken liberties including West Virginia here, as they haven't been publicly mentioned as a possible Big Ten target (presumably because of academics). I've also left Notre Dame out because I don't think they will reconsider their independent positioning, despite Swarbrick's recent statements on the matter.

This new super division creates two problems. For one, you've effectively killed the Big East as a football conference, stealing away arguably their four best football programs (at least historically). Two, you've taken away a critical 12th team from the Big 12 and they would have to scramble to replace Missouri.

First, on salvaging the Big East, you are left with Cincinnati, South Florida, UConn and Louisville. After courts threw out UConn's lawsuit against Jim Delaney for "conspiring to weaken the Big East," the Huskies along with C-USA bolt-ons Cincy, South Florida and Louisville would be looking for new homes. The problem is, with the Big Ten superconference now formed, the math regarding the number of teams in other conferences tends to break down.

I doubt the ACC or the SEC would be willing to take on these four new programs on a whim, without the exploratory research that the Big Ten, Pac 10 and MWC are now conducting on conference expansion possibilities. That leaves these four programs to find homes in either the MAC (although already at 13 teams, I can't imagine the scheduling headaches of a 17 team conference) or back to Conference USA for Cincinnati, South Florida and Louisville.

An expanded 16 team Conference USA might look something like this:

C-USA East: East Carolina, UCF, UAB, Marshall, Cincinnati, South Florida, Louisville, UConn
C-USA West: Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulsa, UTEP, Rice, Tulane, Southern Miss, Memphis

Adding the four former Big East teams to the East division and moving Southern Miss and Memphis to the conference's West division.

The other problem of replacing Missouri in the Big 12 hasn't been solved yet either. Most discussion around the Big 12's reaction to Big Ten expansion centers on wooing away Arkansas from the SEC to be reunited with their old Big 8 buddies. The addition of Arkansas also likely changes up the makeup of the Big 12 divisions, allowing the conference to shift Oklahoma to the north so they can finally get their Texas-Oklahoma Big 12 championships.

Big 12 South: Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, Arkansas, Oklahoma State
Big 12 North: Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Colorado

Finally, to replace the hole that Arkansas leaves in the SEC, the SEC would likely go after either Clemson or Florida State from the ACC. My gut tells me neither South Carolina nor Florida would be particularly happy about this move, given that they would be introducing an in-state rival into their conference (and the knock-on effect this would have on recruiting), but I would imagine the SEC would listen to UF's pleas before they considered South Carolina's argument against expansion. So my guess is Clemson would bolt for the SEC, setting up an SEC that looks like this:

SEC East: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Clemson
SEC West: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Tennessee

With Tennessee moving from the SEC East to the SEC West to accommodate Clemson.

Finally, the ACC would be left to fill the void left by Clemson, and this could take any number of directions. The ACC might look at one of the teams from the former Big East. South Florida for its geographic fit. UConn to give BC a northern dancing partner. Or even Louisville in some strange hope that this would give the ACC a footprint in a traditionally SEC market. 

Another option would be Navy, who have acquitted themselves well, at least in football over the past few years and would be a natural rival to Maryland. For sake of argument, let's go with Louisville. This also gives the ACC an opportunity to realign their divisions to something that, well, makes sense:

ACC North: Boston College, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State
ACC South: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

There would be a slot left in the newly expanded Conference USA, which seems like a perfect opportunity for one of the odd-numbered MAC teams to move to Conference USA. Let's say Ohio moves over, renewing their rivalry with Marshall in C-USA's East division. That evens up the MAC at 12 teams and Conference USA at 16 teams. 

So basically, if the Big Ten doesn't carefully weigh their options and recklessly expands to 16 teams, the ripple effect may be felt from Storrs, Connecticut to Boulder, Colorado. You could have the UConn Huskies stuck playing football in Conference USA (heh), Louisville playing in the ACC, Arkansas in the Big 12 and Clemson in the SEC.

Crazy, I know. But so is the thought that the Big Ten will expand by 5 into the country's first 16-team super conference.