Oddsmakers: Previewing Boston College-Clemson

To preview this weekend's game between the Eagles and Tigers, we play a game of Oddsmakers to handicap BC's chances on Saturday.

 

Chances the BC offense scores more than 19.14 points against Clemson?

Jeff: There has to be a pretty decent chance that BC scores more than 19 points Saturday. BC's 19.14 PPG season average is kind of skewed by being shut out once against Virginia Tech. Throw that game out and they're averaging 22.3 PPG. But you could also throw out the Kent State and Weber State games and you're left with a 17.5 PPG average. HOWEVER, this is Rettig's fourth start and should be his third complete game. We will see improvement. Hopefully this results in some more points even though Clemson's defense is very good. I'll go 49 percent chance of scoring more than 19 partially just because of my hope for seeing a BC win Saturday which would probably take more than 19 points.

Brian: The Eagles offensive woes have been well documented. I think the BC offense is probably good for 2 touchdowns, but I'm struggling to find many more points. I guess wishful thinking here is that Nate Freese connects on 2 more field goals and the Eagles eke out a 20 point offensive performance on Saturday. The chances of this happening? If you base this on BC's previous seven games, not good. I'll go low here. Just 33 1/3 percent chance that BC scores 20 or more points on offense. Really hoping the BC D gives the offense an assist in the point total column.

 

Chances BC wins the turnover battle?

Brian: Chances can't be good here, right? Clemson is ranked in the top 25 in turnover margin with a +5 while BC is currently at -1. The Tigers have much more experience at quarterback, and Kyle Parker has thrown just 4 picks on the year, and 3 of those came against Miami, against 8 TD passes. That's a much better ratio than Chase has through 2+ games (2:2). Unless the Eagles offensive line is finally going to put together a complete game, it stands to reason that Clemson's pass rush, led by Da'Quan Bowers, will get plenty of pressure on Rettig. That'll lead to at least 1-2 turnovers. Parker wasn't very effective against the Eagles D last season (13-27, 0 TD, 2 INT), but he know has a full year as a starter under his belt and I'd imagine he'll at least be serviceable for Clemson. I'm going to go low here, as I don't have confident that the Eagles defense can create more opportunities than the BC offense will give Clemson. 25 percent.

Jeff: No, chances are not good for a lot of things Saturday. But while BC has played its toughest opponents this season, Clemson has certainly not. They still have Florida State and N.C. State left. Certainly there game at now #1 Auburn was tough but their games against Miami and North Carolina which they lost are to be determined on how great their opponents where in those matchups. BC's toughest are certainly behind them, especially after Saturday. BC has plenty of time to creep back up some of the national rankings in many statistical categories before the end of the season. BC can get some turnovers Saturday, though, it's really just a question of how many they give up. I'll give the Eagles a better chance and closer to a coin flip. 45 percent.

 

Chances Da'Quan Bowers records more than 1.5 sacks on Saturday?

Jeff: Will Rettig be allowed to drop back and pass very often? Probably not. BC will run the ball until passing is the only option and Rettig has been able to allude a bunch of sacks so I think chances for Bowers are relatively slim. 20% here.

Brian: Rettig has show some elusiveness but Bowers has been destroying everything in his path. He has six sacks in his last three games (including 3 against Maryland) and has been making O Linemen's lives pretty miserable. Like waterwater said, if Lapham gets the assignment against Bowers, he easily goes over. If Bowers goes up against Castonzo, I think Castonzo keeps him out of the sack stat column. The chances of this happening are probably less than 50/50, but just barely. I'll go with a 45 percent chance Bowers gets two sacks on Saturday. 


Chances BC and Clemson go over the 40 1/2 point over under?

Brian: I'm going to say chances are good here. Each week, the over/under continues to get lower and lower. Last week, the Eagles and Terrapins eked out 45 points to cover the 41 point over/under. This week, the current line is 1/2 point lower than that. One of these two defenses will find the end zone, and the Eagles O should at least be able to punch in a few TDs. And that's just the point total for BC. Clemson, meanwhile, is averaging 30.29 points per game and is probably good for at least 3 scores. If the Eagles performance to date has been any indication of what we'll see on Saturday, the D will have a tough time getting off the field and Kyle Parker will find a way to move down the field. Here, I'll go as high as 70 percent.

Jeff: Going over here means it will be a competitive game. A 31-6 Clemson win will not go over the total. I don't think that this type of game is likely but it's certainly possible. There's also a chance that this game is a replay of last year where really the only touchdown was a Clemson special teams score on a Spiller punt return. Field goals will not add up to 41 or more points. I'll go low here and say 28%. Call your friends in Vegas.

 

Last one, chances BC wins and ends this losing streak?

Jeff: The streak has to end somewhere right? It's either here or next week at Wake Forest. If we lose both of those I doubt we'll win at Duke after having been eliminated from bowl contention. There is no rhyme or reason to it but I think it ends Saturday. I have yet to see a Spaz coached team win in person so a loss would take my streak there to 6 games and I have not been in attendance for a BC win since seeing them beat Maryland in 2008. That streak would be extended to 7 games for me. BC has also not beaten Dabo yet and there is no reason for that streak to continue. I'm not going to guarantee victory but for no reason whatsoever I'll say 93 percent chance BC wins Saturday.

Brian: Jeff defies all logic and reason and all but guarantees an Eagles' victory. I'm officially speechless.

I don't think I have anything really to add after that, only to say I'll go the other way on this. I'll say the Eagles only have a (100-93=) 7 percent chance of winning on Saturday. After finding new and creative ways to lose football games, my expectations for the rest of the season are officially so low now that a loss on Saturday probably won't even phase me.

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