N.C. State Game Preview And The Big Finish

via cdn1.sbnation.com

Brian: There has been a lot of back and forth on what the Tom O'Brien Bowl Part Deux really means for both teams.

So the question is simple – who needs this game more? Jags and the Eagles or O'Brien and the Wolfpack?

Jeff: I think the Eagles need this one more. NC State is 2-3 and of the rest of their games, I would imagine the only game they might be favored in is their game at Duke. Right now the only line I could find for any of their future games was their game at North Carolina where they are 11.5 point underdogs. So basically, even with a win Saturday, it is unlikely that they would make a bowl game. Also, they have FSU coming to Raleigh for a Thursday night game so that is probably the game that the players really want to win given the fate of the team in the conference and dismal postseason hopes. The Eagles need to win to continue things heading in the right direction, head to a bowl game at a minimum, and possibly even defend their Atlantic division crown and head to Tampa.

Brian: I agree that the Eagles need this more, but you can't tell me that Tom O'Brien doesn't want to win this game badly. This is probably the easiest game on the schedule remaining for BC. An impressive win in Raleigh will make a big statement to the rest of the conference that BC can contend for another division crown and that the Atlantic is very much up for grabs.

On if Logan is still experimenting with the offense, playing a "hide and seek" offense (one where you run the ball 52 times one game and where you pass the ball 50+ times the next game) ...

We're running the same offense he ran in 1992. I mean it's the same thing, same terminology, same everything. It's not a secret what we're doing. The thing about a balanced offense is … throw it when you want to throw it, run it when you want to run it. I think that's balance to me. Whatever puts a W on the board. I ain't worried about the stats.

Brian: Do you think Logan is holding back? What percentage of run-pass are you expecting from the Eagles on Saturday?

Jeff: I got nothing from that teleconference to indicate that anyone is holding anything back. But Logan is certainly still trying to figure things out, find our offense's identity and a QB he can count on late in the game. This week he might get some answers but I'm sure he won't get all his answers. As far as a percentage, I'm hoping for 60-40 run-pass, but really just care about a W.


Big Finish

Brian: The mainstream media's consensus this year is that the Southeastern Conference is the best in football. However, the college football blogger The Wiz of Odds challenges the MSM's assertion that the SEC is the best conference in the land. The Wiz compares BCS conference vs. BCS conference records over the last 10 years and determines that the best conference head to head is actually the Pac-10. Now, we all know that Boston College has switched BCS conferences in that time frame, so for Eagles fans, it would be more interesting to see the conference records head to head since 2005.

I crunched the numbers to determine how the BCS conferences stack up against one another over the last three years. Jeff, guess where the ACC ranks head-to-head against the other BCS conferences since 2005?

Jeff: Last?

Brian: We have a winner.

ACC finished DFL with a win percentage of 0.441 against BCS competition. It was sort of a trick question though, because the Pac 10 still finishes #1 in a three year span. The rankings:

Conference vs. BCS Record Pct.
Pac 10 23-14 0.622
SEC 32-26 0.552
Big East 27-29 0.482
Big XII 24-26 0.480
Big 10 23-26 0.469
ACC 30-38 0.441



Note that Boston College only accounts for exactly 1 of those wins for the ACC - the bowl win against Michigan State. We haven't scheduled a BCS conference opponent in our first three years in the ACC (Notre Dame didn't count in the statistics). Special thanks to the National Championship Issue blog for compiling the statistics.


Jeff: Running back Josh Haden will see significant playing time this Saturday coming off his ankle injury. Who is the Eagles leading rusher this weekend?

Brian: Montel Harris, but we'll also get solid contributions from everyone - Haden, Smith, Davis and Crane.


Brian: BC hits the road for the first of four ACC away games this season. Boston College is a pedestrian 6-6 (.500) on the road in the ACC since joining the conference. (Contrast that with a 10-3 record at home since 2005 which is tied with Virginia Tech for the highest winning percentage in conference at home.)

What is the Eagles record composite ACC road record at the end of the season?

Jeff: I think the Eagles will go 3-1 for a composite record of 9-7. They'll win Saturday and win at North Carolina, then split at Florida State and at Wake Forest.


Brian: In addition to Drew Little, Boston College offered Lithonia, GA product WR Stephen Hill a scholarship. Has Georgia become Jags' Cincinnati for recruiting?

Jeff: In Jags I trust, so wherever he needs to go to find the talent is fine with me.


Jeff: Last one Brian, over/under our 6.5 points allowed per game Saturday?

Brian: Slightly over. By .5 to be exact. But I'm going under the #2 ranked defense for points allowed per game, which is the current national rank of the Eagles defense. Kentucky holds down the #1 spot this week, but they have to travel to Alabama this Saturday, so I fully expect BC to take over the #1 spot come Sunday.


Picks

Brian:

  • Duke +14.5 @ Georgia Tech
  • Florida -25 @ Arkansas
  • South Carolina @ Mississippi -2.5
  • Auburn -4.5 @ Vanderbilt
  • Florida State +3 @ Miami

Jeff: Brian takes Auburn and an ACC Atlantic team over the Coastal. What a SHOCKER!

Jeff:

  • Pittsburgh +13.5 @ South Florida
  • Penn State -13.5 @ Purdue
  • Boston College -9 @ North Carolina State
  • Rutgers @ West Virginia -13.5
  • Missouri @ Nebraska +10.5
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